First to Third: Reviewing My NL Predictions

After round one of the review of my pre-season picks, I'm back for more evidence that I'm not a genius. This time, we'll dissect my NL pre-season picks.

NL Postseason Awards: I guessed Dan Haren would win the NL Cy Young award this year and he's put up strong numbers but will likely get votes, but will come up short. Manny Ramirez was my NL MVP and his steroid suspension and poor numbers this year won't even put him in the conversation.

NL Playoffs: I had the Phillies winning the division, which will happen and the Mets taking the Wild Card. Since the Mets... well... fell apart (literally), they aren't in the conversation. I picked the Cubs to win the Central and the Cardinals to finish fourth. I can't understand how the Cubs managed to do this bad, but my oversight of the Cardinals was embarrassing. St. Louis pitching coach, Dave Duncan is some sort of genius. Out West, I crowned the Dodgers, which was easy, but I had the Rockies, the likely wild card team this year, in fourth. The Cubs were my pick to win the pennant. Ouch.

What I really did in spring training was sit down and wonder what's not going to happen... yes, that's it. I wasn't the only one, though, as ESPN's Buster Olney liked the Cubs in the Central and Tim Kurkjian sent them to the World Series, like I did. Peter Gammons put the Mets in the World Series and gave the Central to the Cubs. ESPN, if you're reading this, I'm available! ESPN Expert Picks.

First to Third: Reviewing My AL Predictions

I think predictions are fun. In the beginning of the season, every team has hopes at capturing the championship and everyone thinks they can pretty much guess how the season will unfold. Common folk, like me, post these predictions as a way of saying "look over here, I know what I'm talking about, too!" and experts make predictions to say exactly the same thing as a way to prove their knowledge. Now that we're at the end of the season, I'm going to review and evaluate my predictions as a way to show you how little I (and everyone else) really knows. We'll save the National League until next time.

AL Postseason Awards:
I predicted Rays pitcher James Shields to win the Cy Young and Grady Sizemore to win the MVP. Suffice it to say neither of those things are going to happen and those guys aren't even in the conversation.

AL Playoffs: I had the Yankees winning the AL East and the Red Sox as the wild card. So far, so good. In the Central, I had the Twins winning the division, which isn't a stretch since they're close, but I had the Tigers in the basement. Oops. Out West, I predicted the A's to dethrone the Angels, who I picked to finish second. Oakland didn't come close and began the dismantling process after probably three games this year. I had the Yankees winning the American League and the World Series, so be sure to keep me honest with that one.

Well, that was pretty terrible, besides the AL East. As for some "expert picks" that were a bit off: ESPN's Peter Gammons and Tim Kurkjian also picked Sizemore for the MVP. Kurkjian also picked the Indians to win the Central. Buster Olney had the Rays winning the AL East and the World Series. Glad I'm not the only genius out there! ESPN Expert Picks.

Above the Rim: Same Faces, New Places

Welcome back to “Above the Rim,” the leader in fantasy basketball advice. Today’s edition will cover players and coaches who switched teams over the summer and their subsequent impact on the fantasy world. When a new player is introduced in the article, I have included their notable ‘07-’08 stats as well as where ESPN.com has them ranked on their big board. Now lets get into it.

Yi Jianlian/ Richard Jefferson
Nets: Despite Yi Jianlian’s (8.6 pts, 5.2 reb, ESPN #173) unreal talent, I don’t see him getting any more than 24 minutes a night and this basically makes him irrelevant in the fantasy game. On the other hand, Devin Harris (14.4 pts, 5.3 ast, ESPN #76) is a stud. As he gets older, he will learn to improve his shot selection which should raise his questionable field goal percentage.
Bucks: The Bucks are an intriguing team. Both Richard Jefferson (22.6 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.1 ast, ESPN #86) and Michael Redd (22.7 pts, 3.4 ast, ESPN #47) can fill it up and Jefferson is used to running along side another super star. I expect both Jefferson and Redd to build upon last year’s performance. Yi’s departure also opens up minutes for Charlie Villanueva (11.7 pts, 6.1 reb, ESPN #124) and he should see career numbers this year as a result.

James Posey
Celtics: The Celtics were already thin at the bench and the loss of James Posey (7.4 pts, 1.5 ast, ESPN #136) is a blow to the defending champions. Look for Leon Powe (7.9 pts, 4.1 reb, ESPN #224) to raise his stat line to the 12 point and 8 rebound range, while Eddie House (7.5 pts, ESPN #154) should see a couple more 3-point opportunities a game.
Hornets: The Hornets went out and bought a proven winner and from what I have seen of the preseason, look for Posey to raise his numbers across the board. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Posey supplant Mo Petterson (8 pts, 2.7 reb, ESPN #168) in the starting line-up at some point this season. The Hornets did not spend $25 million to watch Posey ride the bench.

Ron Artest
Rockets: Ron Artest (20.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.3 stl, ESPN #54) is a fantasy stud, and he will be playing for a contract, so expect him to produce. His ppg will dip a little from last year but the rest of his stat line should see a slight bump. I am also excited to see Tracy McGrady (21.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.9 ast, ESPN #108) play now that we won’t have to take the number one defense assignment (just pray his shoulder stays together).

Mike D’Antoni
Knicks: Finally the Knicks seem to care about winning basketball games. D’Antoni will bring his offense minded game to the Garden and the expect the shots to be flying. I am predicting career years for David Lee (10.8 pts, 8.9 reb, ESPN #67) and Nate Robinson (12.7 pts, 2.9 ast, ESPN #141). Conversely, Eddie Curry (13.2 pts, 4.7 reb, ESPN #266) and Zach Randolph (17.6 pts, 10.3 reb, ESPN #112) should be avoided like the plague (that is until they get traded).
Suns: Terry Porter was brought in to strengthen up the Suns defense and create a more deliberate offensive scheme. This means the offensive stat lines of most of the Suns players should see a small decrease. One of the only fantasy improvements should be Amare Stoudemire’s ( 27.2 pts, 9.1 reb, 2 blk, ESPN #2) rebounding numbers.

TJ Ford/ Jermaine O’Neal
Pacers: The Indiana Pacers are back on track. They are no jumping into the stands after fans and Jamal Tinsley (11.9 pts, 8.4 ast, ESPN #293) is being paid not to be around the team. If TJ Ford (12.1 pts, 6.1 ast, ESPN #92) can stay healthy, he has the ability to be one of the league leaders in assists. Unlike ESPN, I have not been drinking the Danny Granger (19.6 pts, 6.1 reb, ESPN #22) juice. I won’t even look at this kid until at least the fourth round.
Raptors: Jose Calderon (11.2 pts, 8.3 ast, ESPN #32) finally gets his chance to start with TJ Ford being shipped out. I don’t see a full 82 game schedule out of Calderon and I would let someone else take the gamble on him. Jermaine O’Neal (13.6 pts, 6.7 reb, ESPN #96) was a rookie in ’96 and doesn’t come off my board until at least the 8th round.

Baron Davis/ Corey Maggette
Warriors: The Warriors are another team going in the wrong direction. Monta Ellis (20.2 pts, 3.9 ast, ESPN #97) won’t be available until ‘09 and that means Marcus Williams’ (5.9 pts, 2.6 ast, ESPN #164) fantasy stock is soaring. Expect Williams to be in the TJ Ford range during Ellis’ absence. Corey Maggette (22.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.7 ast, ESPN #90) will continue to be a reliable scorer and Nellie’s wide open offense will open up the lanes to showcase Magette’s athleticism.
Clippers: Well, after Elton Brand (17.6 pts, 8 reb, ESPN #14) bolted for a fat pay check back east, Baron Davis (21.1 pts, 7.6 ast, ESPN #16) steps in as the franchise in Clipper-land (lucky him). I see a slow adjustment for Baron in his new system but expect him to be back to 20+ pts and 7+ ast by early December.

Random Notes:
Agent Zero (19.4 pts, 5.1 ast, ESPN #69) is back on the bench watching and it is starting to feel like Wizards fans will never get to see how good this team truly could have been. In his absence, expect Antonio Daniels (8.4 pts, 4.8 ast, ESPN #150) to see some considerable minutes. Remember, Daniels has twice led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Deron Williams (18.8 pts, 10.5 ast, ESPN #12) left a preseason game on Saturday with a smoked ankle, but the x-rays were negative. I see no reason why Williams stock should suffer. You should feel confident building your team around this kid.

Allan Houston has announced that he will be taking his comeback with the Knicks slowly. Houston has been out of the game for over 3 years and D’Antoni’s system is not compatible with an old, out of shape shooter. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Allan Houston. He has one of the sweetest strokes to ever grace the hardwood, but honestly, dude is 37 years old. Retire and open a restaurant Allan. Time to hang up the high tops.

Bang the Gavel: The Not So Talented Mr. Roto, and the than More Talented Ms. Bell

Last week, Matthew Berry (better known at ESPN as the "Talented Mr. Roto") advised fantasy owners to start the Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Browns then promptly scored a rousing 51 points on the Bengals "D" leading to a lot of bad will.

In his follow-up article, Mr. Berry acknowledged his misdeed. What followed, however, was the general laundry-list of excuses of generally follows a failed gamler, including Mr. Berry's own defense that he should be forgiven for his terrible pick -- and maybe even lauded -- because he, unlike others, was willing to take a risk. Simply preposterous!

ESPN.com is the largest fantasy sports site in the world, and Berry is ESPN's no. 1 featured "expert". Fantasy sports players rely on these so-called "experts" to provide accurate advice, much as how individual stock investors rely on the stock-picking advice of investment fund managers. This does not mean someone like Berry is expected to be correct 100% of the time. But an "expert" prognosticator's performance needs to be closer to the likes of Mr. Bill Miller -- the Legg Mason fund manager beat the market 15 consecutive years. When prognosticators cannot yield consistent accuracy, they should lose the pulpit to project.

Before I blast ESPN.com and its fantasy "expertise" too far, however, I also have to give the website kudos from hiring away from Rotowire.com a fantasy prognosticator that truly is talented: Board Certified Orthopedic Clinical Specialist and a Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist Stephania Bell. Ms. Bell's work is a positive innovation over that of most fantasy "experts" because she focuses her writing on the estimated time for players to recover from injuries, and her expertise is based on real training in that subject area. The work of academic experts like Bell in the arena of fantasy sports is the kind of innovation that will allow our game to transcend its perception as quasi-gambling. Ideally, Bell's work would be supplemented on the major sites by others with similar expertise that tie comfortably to sport.

Where the major sites drop the ball is where I hope SportsJudge Blog to pick it up and run into the endzone. In coming weeks, we plan to launch regular columns from a staff of statisticians and medical doctors. It remains our steadfast belief that while sports reporters are best at writing post-week recaps, pre-game predictions should remain a job for those with a different set of expertise.