The Puck Stops Here: The Midway Point

We are about half way through the NHL season, and as I alluded to in the Holiday Edition last week, this is a great time to evaluate everything and prepare for the second half. With that in mind, here are a few things I have learned so far this season.

The Red Wings and the Senators are fantasy gold mines. In just about every major fantasy category you will find Senators and Red Wings near the top of the list. The most telling number is that the top 6 plus-minus ratings in the league belong to them, including 8 of the top 10. This is a sign of things to come, take extra notice of Senators and Red Wings in the future, especially if you need plus-minus help.

Meet the new “it” team, the Chicago Blackhawks. Last year it was the Pittsburgh Penguins; this year Chicago is taking the league by storm. The Blackhawks don’t have the biggest names in the league, but the entire team is playing well. A young team that has great chemistry can perform as well as any of the big names out there. Don’t be shy about taking a risk on some Blackhawks if any of them spark your interest. (Also like this year, watch for Blackhawk players to be overvalued next season like much of the Penguins this season.)

Stick with the grizzled veterans. As of now, there are only 4 rookies that I would recommend owning; and if it was not for the upside of Nicklas Backstrom, I would not include him on this list. Just like any sport, rookies always sound enticing, however it is best to let somebody else wrestle with their inconsistency and yet to be fulfilled potential. While you don’t necessarily want to ignore young players, just remember inconsistency will abound.

You can learn a lot by reading real NHL coverage. Everyone can read a fantasy article; a dedicated fantasy owner looks at everything involving the sport. Keep an eye on roster rumors, roster and line changes, the standings and team stats. Team stats can give great information underlying a player’s performance and can be a great predictor of future performance. Roster rumors can be especially useful this time of the year as teams begin to fold their cards and others go all in. These moves can have a profound impact on performance.

Goals are tougher to come by this year. As a whole NHL scoring is down compared to last season. Last season, 11 teams ended averaging over 3 goals per game, and currently there are only 7. Furthermore, there are 3 teams averaging less goals per game this season than the lowest team last season. This all means don’t be frustrated with underachieving performances. Generally, everyone is underachieving compared to last year. On the other end of the spectrum, covet those players scoring in bunches; they are having a bigger impact than you think.

Until next week, I hope everyone has a great start to 2008.

The Puck Stops Here: Holiday Edition

It has been a bit of a slow week in the NHL because of the holiday, but this is a great time to take a deep breath, evaluate your team and decide what you need to do to win your league. You need to determine your strengths and weaknesses, choose which players are expendable, target players on other teams or on the waiver wire and make a plan of attack. If you are in first place, don’t sit tight, you are always one or two injuries away from losing your lead.

Here are some players that may be available on the waiver wire that you should be targeting. Remember, reading this is the first step; you should still research and decide if a player fits your needs.

Karri Ramo, G, Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay’s biggest question still remains their goaltending. However, Johan Holmqvist and Marc Denis are not the answer; Karri Ramo is. Ramo has recently been given two starts in a row and has done everything to show he deserves to be the number one in Tampa. Although it is a small sample, Ramo has a 1.51 GAA and a save percentage of 95.5%. At the very least, if you own Holmqvist, you should also own Ramo. I picked him up, so should you.

Dustin Byfuglien, D, Chicago: Although Byfuglien has defense eligibility in fantasy leagues he has been playing forward and getting serious minutes with Chicago’s young studs. This is a positional rarity in the NHL and should be taken advantage of. He finds regular minutes in the penalty box and has a scoring touch, including a hat trick at the turn of the month. Byfuglien is worth a look for any team, and a definite add for any team searching for help with their 3rd or 4th defenseman spot.

Aaron Voros, W, Minnesota: Voros is doing his best impression of Sean Avery from last season. Voros is providing more than ample PIM while still providing decent offensive production. He is getting enough ice time to continue being productive across the board. He is no where near a point per game type of player, but as long as he keeps the PIM stockpiled he is worthy of a roster spot.

Andy McDonald, C, St. Louis: McDonald has yet to live up to expectations this year after a strong campaign last season, but this is because he did not have Teemu Selanne on his wing. Now, McDonald has been paired with Paul Kariya in St. Louis and has the prolific winger he has been missing all year. He has 5 points in his last 4 games with St. Louis and he should be one of the top centers throughout the rest of the season.

Dennis Wideman, D, Boston: There are few defensemen over the last month who have been more valuable than Wideman. Wideman will provide consistent help with PIM, but he has also been scoring at almost a point per game clip over the last month. He is getting plenty of ice time and has 8 power play points over the last month. Wideman has been playing very well and has been rewarded with solid ice time as well as the precious power play minutes at the blue line.

Rob Blake, D, Los Angeles: Let me make this clear, Blake is on the down swing of his career and his PIM over the last month are misleading. However, he has 6 points in his last 8 games and is shooting the puck more. Blake is still an integral part of the Kings and during his prime he was a top tier defenseman. If you have space, he may be worth a move. However, don’t base the move on PIM, 38 of his 48 PIM over the last month came in two games.

I wish everyone a happy and safe New Year’s celebration. The best way to kick off 2008 is by enjoying the Penguins vs. Sabres in the NHL’s first outdoor game since the Canadiens beat the Oilers 4 years ago. I will see you back here next Thursday.b

Smiles & Frowns: It Never Gets Old

It’s hard to believe that Week 17 of the NFL season is already here and the fantasy football season is no longer.

I play because I need the competition; because I enjoy the insults and jabs that get thrown around on the league message board (note: telling your friend that his sister is attractive really does not get old); and I think that all of us play because we desire that unique element of control and pride that comes from owning a fantasy football team—unless your team is terrible.

Personally, I’m proud that one of my teams—with an unmentionable team name—won a league championship, but I’m sad it’s over. It’s like a movie with a pleasing ending that you just didn’t want to end. Granted, this was a better finish than the previous year when I lost a semi-final game by two points and spent the next week telling young children that Santa doesn’t exist (Okay, I didn’t. But I wanted to).

Still, it’s all over. But don’t fret—playoff football is almost here, the baseball season is closer than you think, and there are plenty of lessons to take from the season passed.

Because the season has ended in all of my leagues and most of yours, I will use this space to reflect back on my own league draft from September, rather than this past week’s managerial decisions. Just like a rough night out on the town, it’s important to discuss all of your good and bad decisions so you don’t repeat mistakes. And the great thing about fantasy football is that it’s perfectly fine to allow your friends to continually make the same mistakes, if for no other reason but because it’s funny.

A look back at the draft of my championship team (note: this draft took place in a 10-team head-to-head league):

Amazingly, this team finished with only six of the 19 players taken during the draft. The others I lost through trades or waivers.

Early Rounds:

1st Round: With the 2nd overall pick I selected Steven Jackson. At the time he was the consensus number two pick, so I was excited about that draft position. It was difficult for Steven Jackson owners to overcome the loss of him for four weeks, but he has been solid down the stretch with at least 76 yards rushing in every game following the Rams week-nine bye. Jackson added five touchdowns and 27 receptions over that span. Given the loss of OT Orlando Pace and the injuries to Marc Bulger, I was pleased with his production.

Don’t draft a player only because he’s a “consensus” pick or based on previous years’ statistics, and don’t rely on a “cheat sheet” to make your picks for you. But when you have a guy like Jackson who is a physical specimen, a running and receiving threat with an awesome television commercial where he physically harms people, I think it’s okay to draft him where the pundits put him.

2nd Round: With the 19th overall pick I selected Steve Smith (Carolina). Brief pause. It started out wonderfully (15 receptions for 271 yards and four touchdowns in the first two games), but the loss of Delhomme led to five David Carr starts and a Testaverde un-retirement. And you know how that played out. The result was a substandard year for Steve Smith. Fortunately, I was able to trade him mid-season before his value diminished too much.

Although I favor running backs in the early rounds and it was extremely frustrating to suffer from the “I can’t not start Steve Smith even with Carr throwing to him” Syndrome, I don’t regret the pick. In the greater scheme of things, I think Smith may actually get undervalued going into next year’s draft as a result—look out in 2008.

4th Round: I was able to get Tom Brady with the 39th overall pick. Coming off a 24-touchdown, 12-interception year (and a career-high 28 touchdown passes), no one could have predicted his McGwire-sized numbers this year, even with the overhaul at the Patriots wide receiver position. This pick worked out well and is the reason my team played in the championship. Sometimes you just get lucky.

Middle Rounds:

10th Round: Michael Turner. “Handcuff” fever and a personal vendetta against an owner who took Turner in a separate league where I owned Tomlinson pushed me to grab Turner where I really didn’t need him. Although, I thought I got good value at the time. Logically, it made sense given his production in 2006 (80 carries for 502 yards) and as Tomlinson’s backup; but I wonder going forward if it may be better to pile assets that have value other than as trade bait. You never know if you will be able to trade that player, and for what.

12th Round: I drafted Wes Welker 119th overall. It was my favorite pick of the draft. In the middle rounds and late rounds I like to find consistent, complementary players (reserves), and I like to take fliers. He turned out to be a perfect, reliable slot target who consistently produced. I certainly didn’t pencil him in for over 100 catches, but Welker was what I thought he’d be!!!! He was what I thought he’d be, and I didn’t let him off the hook!!!!

Late Rounds:

17th Round: I took TE Chris Baker from the Jets here, the first tight end I selected. I felt that after the first handful of TE’s, there was no sense in picking one sooner just to fill out the roster where there was better value elsewhere on the board. Well, tight end continued to be a spot of weakness for me until mid-season as I started everyone including Mark Bavaro. I eventually was able to use my 14th round pick Brandon Marshall to acquire Heath Miller mid-season, but maybe I won’t wait quite so long to draft a TE next season.

Thanks for reading.

Now you’ll excuse me I’m going to get my computer some HGH so I’ll be ready to talk about baseball in the New Year.

Matt's Stats: Week 16 NFL Preview

Congratulations to all of you out there who are lucky enough to be playing in the Championship game this week. My apologies to any of you who were counting on Willie Parker to score any points last night. Here we are with the final picks and players for the 2007 NFL Season:

"Play" or "Stay Away":

QB - Play Derek Anderson (QB, Cleveland Browns). Anderson didn't do much for you in the semifinals if you started him, but that was because of the blizzard. This week he goes against a Bengals team that is 25th in the NFL against the pass and is the team that he broke out against in Week 2 (328 Passing Yards, 5 TD and 1 INT). Anderson makes a great start this week for your Championship game.

Stay away from Jon Kitna (QB, Detroit Lions). Kitna is going against the Chiefs, who have been horrible as of late, making this a tempting start. Don't be fooled though, the Lions are in a tailspin and the Chiefs still rank 5th in the NFL against the Pass. Look elsewhere this week at QB.

RB - Play Kolby Smith (RB, Kansas City Chiefs). Outside of one bad game two weeks ago, Smith has been very good since taking over for Priest and LJ. Johnson recently had a set back so it appears that he won't be playing again this week. This adds up to an excellent start for Smith against a bad Lions rush defense, currently ranked 21st in the NFL.

Stay away from Clinton Portis (RB, Washington Redskins). Portis has had a much better season that I ever expected, but stay away from him here. The Vikings are the top team in the league, by a good margin, against the run. The Redskins will come into the game looking to pass, and could even use Ladell Betts more. Stay away from Portis this week.

WR - Play Santana Moss (WR, Washington Redskins). This is because of the same reason why you should stay away from Portis this week. The Vikings secondary gets a lot of turnovers but they still give up the most receiving yards of any team in the NFL. The Redskins have been on fire as of late, and will have to hope for the Santana Moss of old in trying to win the big Sunday Night Game. If you have held onto Moss for this long, he makes a good start for Week 16.

Stay away from Patrick Crayton (WR, Dallas Cowboys). Crayton has had an excellent season while Glenn has been out totalling 41 Catches for 624 Yards and 7 TDs. Crayton will be on the road in Carolina for the Saturday Night game, which as Seattle found out last week, is not as easy a team to beat as you would think. Carolina gives up the 12th least Receiving yards in the NFL, and when you add in the fact that Romo's finger is injured, you get a very risky start in Week 16. Stay away from Crayton this week if you have other options.

Survivor of the Fittest:

The Seahawks not only fell into a tie with the Bucs in the Playoffs, something that definitely makes me nervous as a Giants fan, but their 13-10 loss to the Panthers also put my record down to 12-4 for the Season. To close out the season the pick here is the Jacksonville Jaguars winning at home over the Oakland Raiders. The Jaguars are really getting on a role as of late on their way to the postseason for the first time since 2005, and I don't see any way that the Raiders can stop them this week. Once again, the pick this week is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Thanks to everyone who has been reading Matt's Stats throughout the 2007 Season. I hope everyone has a great Holiday season and you can all look for my return shortly after the new year, as I turn my sights to the upcoming baseball season.

Have a Great Week 16 and enjoy the rest of the Season!!!

Matt

The Puck Stops Here

Welcome to the first edition of The Puck Stops Here. Every Thursday you can look forward to a new article focusing on the world of fantasy hockey, although every so often, I’ll sneak in a couple other fantasy ramblings. Before jumping into some stick and puck, I would like to formally introduce myself. My name is Joe Romano and I am a fantasy sports-aholic. I have religiously played fantasy sports for about a decade. I mainly play football, baseball and hockey, but I have also have dabbled in basketball, golf and Nascar. My hockey knowledge stems from playing ice hockey for fifteen years, having multiple fantasy hockey teams for the last six years and I also live, eat and breathe hockey. That is enough about me, let’s hit the ice.

I had a multitude of ideas for my first article, but I think some general advice concerning fantasy hockey strategy is the best way to start. There is plenty of time in the future to talk about who to add or who is a buy low/sell high candidate. However, if any of you should have a question leave me a comment and I’ll respond to your questions as soon as possible.

Fantasy hockey is a marathon not a sprint. Hockey is a diet version of baseball and the opposite of football. The season is long and decisions should not be made arbitrarily based on one or two games. Your strategy should be similar in hockey as it is in baseball. Watch trends; keep an eye on players over multiple games. Sure, seeing a guy with a high goal or point total should spark your interest, but that is just the beginning. Is he riding a hot streak? Is he scoring in bunches one game and then going scoreless for multiple games. What is his ice time per game? These are the questions you should be asking yourself. You are in it for the long haul, don't ruin the season based on a few poor decisions.

Research your roster moves. Ask yourself, why is this player available? Is the player on the decline? Conversely, is he on the rise? Look at draft position to determine if he is a late blooming stud (see Dominik Hasek). You want consistency, take a look and see how often he is scoring. Investigate his line situation and his team’s offensive or defensive ability. Journeyman players usually stay that way; a player may be hot but he will most likely regress back to his mean. Many diamonds in the rough can be found by taking a few extra minutes to answer these questions.

Don’t waste roster spots. Just because you have four roster spots reserved for defensemen doesn’t mean you actually have to start four defensemen. If there is a valuable forward on waiver wire, don’t be shy to drop a defenseman. Would you rather a forward helping you or a defenseman who will most likely post poor numbers? The NHL schedule allows some maneuverability. It is rare that there isn’t a starting roster spot available for a player who has a game that evening. You wouldn’t start a forward doing nothing, so don’t do the same thing with a defenseman.

Use all the tools out there. Hockey is the black sheep of major fantasy sports, most fantasy websites either ignore hockey or give very sparse information concerning it. This makes a fantasy hockey player’s life much more difficult. Don’t be afraid to read a local newspaper to get the low down on what is happening with specific teams. Every major newspaper has a website, so use them. They usually offer the best advice concerning daily roster movements including injuries, starting goalies and starting line ups.

Get an idea of starting lines for teams. The best example to use is the Pittsburgh Penguins with Sidney Crosby. If a player is on his line, chances are he is going to produce. Take a look at what Tyler Kennedy has done since joining Sid. Mark Bell looked good until he was taken from Mats Sundin’s line and relegated to fourth line duty. Linemates can make or break a player, act accordingly and follow line movements. Don't forget to look at power play lines also, in most leagues they are a stat category. Even if they aren't, points come more easily on the power play. Give extra value to those getting regular power play minutes. (Note: If you pick up a Crosby linemate, don’t fall in love, Coach Therrien changes linemates almost daily.)

Plus-minus is overrated; penalty minutes (PIM) are not. The best predictor of a plus-minus rating is the quality of team around the player; outside of that factor plus-minus is a crap shoot. There are too many outside factors to accurately predict plus-minus. However, PIM can be very valuable. PIM are similar to stolen bases, a person running away with the PIM lead is worth a spot on the roster. He may not do much else, but if he is getting you 10 PIM a week, he needs to be on your roster. If a player is averaging a handful of PIM per game, chances are this is a trend and not a mirage. He can single handedly win you a stat category so go pick him up.

Have a happy and safe holiday! See you next week.

Smiles & Frowns: Snow Day!

Mother Nature reminded us of a couple major points this past week: the weather changes everything, and NFL stars are humans.

I remember a “snow day” and a snow football game that took place in my backyard once upon a time. It looked a lot like the NFL game in Cleveland this past Sunday between the Browns and the Bills. There weren’t any 300-pound athletes, we didn’t play cover-2 defense and no one was watching; but the snow, the mud and the chilling winds—they were all the same.

The weather can be quite humbling. A group of kids on a snow day, your average athlete and even NFL stars (on your fantasy team) can only do so much in a blizzard with 30 to 40 mile-per-hour winds. The clouds rain on Tom Brady, too; Randy Moss’s hands get wet; and the wind does not redirect Eli Manning’s already inaccurate passes. The lesson to all of us then: dull your expectations when your players confront some of the blustery weather conditions that our heroes did on Sunday.

So for those of us going into the last week of the fantasy season in most leagues, let’s heed Mother Nature’s reminder. And let’s get everyone a cup of hot cocoa. With the little marshmallows.

A couple of my key decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: Tampa Bay Defense or Jacksonville Defense

Theory: Find the team in disarray and exploit them

The Scenario: Atlanta versus Tampa Bay, in Tampa Bay. Michael Vick is sentenced two almost two years in jail on the Monday preceding this past week's game. Bobby Petrino quits the next day, on the Tuesday preceding the upcoming game, leaving the rest of his 24-Million dollar contract on the table. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Michael Vick. Bobby Petrino. Veterans unhappy. A traitor; a quarterback carousel; an owner betrayed. The 2007 Atlanta Falcons are in a total and unique state of disarray. Meanwhile, their opponent, Tampa Bay, had a chance to clinch the NFC South with a win.

My alternative, the Jaguars defense, has been very strong this season too, although they were headed on the road against a solid opponent in Pittsburgh. I had to go with Tampa Bay.

The Aftermath: Chris Redman got thrown to the wolves. He started at quarterback for the Falcons, playing in his 15th contest in eight NFL seasons, finishing the day 4 for 15 passing for 34 yards and two interceptions. Tampa returned one of those two interceptions for a touchdown, added two fumble recoveries, a sack and actually recorded their first kickoff return for a touchdown in franchise history (in franchise history!) en route to a 37-3 victory. They banked a lot of points. The Jaguars on the other hand won a surprisingly high-scoring contest against Pittsburgh in the snow, recording five sacks and no turnovers.

Verdict: Good call. Now this certainly wasn’t my most brilliant managerial move ever, so I won’t pat myself on the back. But this is a good place to make the underlying point: players are human. The Falcons had nothing to play for—the season is over, the coach quit, their franchise quarterback—and to many of them, a friend—just got sentenced to two years in prison. The “leaders” and veterans are angry, and rightfully so, and many of them have spoken publicly about it. The team is in total disarray.

Find these teams and players and use it to your advantage. This Bears, while a prouder and more talented team, are headed in this direction. Yes, these players are professionals and it is a job, after all, but no doubt certain teams and players are less motivated than others. Home field advantage is what it is in large part due to the fact that they have the support of their fans. The same applies. Where there is less support and less motivation, performance diminishes. Study the opponent when deciding which of your players to go with this week.

Decision #2: WR Dwayne Bowe or WR Santonio Holmes

Theory: When in doubt, avoid bad weather

The Scenario: I wanted to start Holmes. He’s a more experienced receiver on a better team, with a better quarterback in Roethlisberger. But, as mentioned above, Pittsburgh was the site of one of the winter-wonderland games.

Alternatively, Bowe is a rookie receiver with a very inexperienced second-year quarterback slinging the ball to him in Brodie Croyle (who ended up having a fine fantasy day, I should add—better than Brady’s). Rookie receivers have a tendency to wear down, too. On top of that, Kansas City was out of the playoff hunt headed into the game, while its opponent, the Titans, had their playoff lives on the line. Also, Bowe has scored only one touchdown in the past ten weeks (still one more than I have).

Holmes’ greatest asset, I think, is his speed; speed doesn’t kill in the snow. I decided to go with Bowe.

The Aftermath: Bowe caught five for 64, and Holmes finishing with four for 34 and a two-point conversion. Slight edge to Bowe.

Verdict: Conditions being equal, I would have decided to go with Holmes. But Heinz field has been a disaster this year, and I just wanted to play it safe. I usually adhere to the theory, "go with your guy”, but I think I was justified here going with Bowe. If nothing else, I learned the zip code to Pittsburgh when I looked up the weather forecast.

If you’re still alive, good luck this week!

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 14 -- Road to the Championship

It may have taken them 14 games, but my Phins finally won a game!! After seeing the always reliable Matt Stover miss a field goal in overtime to seal the win for the Ravens, it almost seemed destiny was on the sideline of the Aqua and Orange as Bob Griese and the 1972 Undefeated team looked on. In other news, Week 15 also featured one of the classier moves that the NFL has seen in a longtime by Eagles running back Brian Westbrook. On his way to an easy 20+ yard touchdown score, Westbrook fell to the ground at the one yard line, bringing the clock down to the 2 minute warning and all but sealing the 10-6 victory for the Eagles with the Cowboys out of timeouts. While fantasy owners may have been ready to pull their hair out, Westbrook’s move truly embodied all the good that professional sports in our country stand for. Here is the rest of the good and bad that Week 15 had to offer…

Studs

1. Jamal Lewis – Sunday in Cleveland featured a showdown of monumental proportions when the Bills visited the Browns for what would most likely be a game that allowed the winner to move onto into the playoffs as a wildcard. Despite conditions being horrible with a blizzard invading Cleveland, Jamal Lewis went about his business and put the Browns on his back. Carrying the rock a whopping 33 times, Lewis gained 163 yards and allowed Phil Dawson to add a few field goals to lead his team to an 8-0 victory.

2. Aaron Stecker – Who needs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister when you have Aaron Stecker?! With the Saints still on life support for the sixth and final playoff spot, Stecker was a huge part of New Orleans’ victory on Sunday vs. the Cardinals. Overall, Stecker carried it 22 times for 95 yards and scored two very important touchdowns in the 31-24 win.

3. Roydell Williams – Also in the thick of very tight AFC Playoff race, the Tennessee Titans needed a big second half to get the win in the always difficult Arrowhead Stadium. One major contributor to this win was Roydell Williams, who caught 4 balls for 94 yards in the 26-17 victory. The former Tulane Green Wave star scored two touchdowns as well to end the day as Vince Young’s number one target.

4. Clinton Portis – In typical New York Giants fashion, the team laid down when they needed a win the most Sunday night at home vs. Washington. With Todd Collins starting an NFL game for the first time in nearly a decade, Clinton Portis picked up the slack for the Skins and did everything the team needed him to do in the 22-10 victory. When it was all said and done, C.P. finished with 25 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown to help bring the Skins back to .500 at 7-7.

5. Tampa Bay Defense – For those that were smart enough to start Tampa Bay’s defense yesterday vs. the Falcons were definitely rewarded. With touchdowns coming from both the defense and special teams as well as intercepting Chris Redman twice, fantasy points were definitely piling up in Raymond James Stadium yesterday.

Duds

1. John Kitna – All the losses and the heartache seem to be piling up very quickly in the Motor City lately. Once the talk of the NFL at 6-2, John Kitna appeared to be ready to book a flight to Honolulu in February. Six straight losses later, the Lions have fallen back into their role as the league’s doormat. Flying cross country to play the Chargers, Kitna threw a whopping 5 interceptions with a few of them being returned the other way for a defensive touchdown.

2. Tony Romo – Whether it was the Eagles defense, a sprained thumb, or having Jessica Simpson wearing his jersey in the luxury box yesterday, Tony Romo did not get it done for the Cowboys yesterday. After leading his team and millions of fantasy owners to the top for the entire year, Romo struggled to lock up home field advantage for the Cowboys throughout the playoffs in the team’s 10-6 loss to the Eagles. On the day, Eastern Illinois’ finest finished 13-36 with 214 yards and 3 interceptions. Ouch..

3. Eli Manning – 18 out of 52?!?!? DID ELI MANNING REALLY COMPLETE ONLY 18 OUT OF 52 PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT?!? With a 34.6 completion percentage and only 184 yards passing, you must known that you are destined for the “Dud” list on Monday afternoon..

4. Sean Alexander – Seven carries for 17 yards is definitely NOT going to get it done. With the passing game beginning to flourish under Matt Hasselback and Alexander’s role beginning to clearly diminish, the Seahawks must seriously evaluate whether or not they plan on bringing #37 and his lofty salary number back next season.

SEE YA NEXT TIME FOR FANTASY CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK!

Bang the Gavel: The Mitchell Report's Impact on Fantasy Baseball

Over the past few days, I have received many inquiries about how the 409 page Mitchell Report will impact fantasy baseball in 2008. Here are some thoughts:

1. Players Named in the Mitchell Report will Likely be Underrated in '08. Many fantasy owners are going to predict a decline in the statistics of players named in the Mitchell Report. Don't be one of them. The findings in the Mitchell Report are distant in time, and they only focus on a few teams based on witness availability (Mets, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Athletics). Therefore, the Mitchell Report is not likely to help predict the specific players that will lose their power or velocity next season.

2. Don't Trust Anybody Over 35. Before 1995, it was very rare to find a power surge or velocity increase in any player over 35. Recently, we have seen examples of both. However, most of the players experiencing a renaissance in the twilight of their careers were cited in the Mitchell Report for allegedly doping. Without assessing the merits of any individual allegation, I would move any player over age 35 down a tad my draft list. (Unless, of course, the player is a knuckleball pitcher such as 41-year old Tim Wakefield).

3. Stop Predicting Random Power Surges. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel had a great article yesterday analyzing the performance of players named in the Mitchell Report, explaining that many of the allegedly doping players were "journeymen," and that "[e]ight of the 33 all-stars named in the report were selected only in seasons after they reportedly began using performance-enhancing drugs." This analysis makes me skeptical about finding natural power surges of more than 10 home runs per season in any player over age 27. (They may happen on occasion, but not as frequently as we had been seeing.)

4. Go Bullish on Top Middle Infielders. When I began playing fantasy baseball in the late 1980s, the power differential separating the top middle infielders (e.g., Cal Ripken, Alan Trammell, Ryne Sandberg) from the rest of the pack (e.g., Tony Fernandez, Dick Schofield, Bill Doran) was dramatic. Then, over the past 20 years, middle-infielders that hit 15-20 home runs became a dime a dozen. My guess is that over the next few years, middle infielder home runs will decline substantially, save for the absolute elite.

5. Return of the Stolen Base (and the Defensive Catcher). With the three-run home run becoming less frequent, teams are beginning to return to playing small ball, and stolen bases are again on the rise. Expect this trend to continue into 2008. Also expect less offensive production out of the catcher position, as teams respond to the increased emphasis on the running game by employing more defensive-minded backstops. (This may explain the New York Mets' off-season obsession with trading for light-hitting Brian Schneider.)

Matt's Stats: Week 15 NFL Preview

I hope you are still alive as Round 2 of the Playoffs rolls around this Sunday. As you look to advance to the Championship here are all your players and picks for Week 15 in the National Football League.

"Play" or "Stay Away":

QB - Play Derek Anderson (QB, Cleveland Browns). Anderson has a streak of 3 consecutive weeks of 2 TDs and look for that to continue this week. This is the biggest game for the Browns since 2002 and they are going against a Bills defense that ranks 28th in the NFL against the pass. Expect the first 3 TD game for Anderson since Week 10 and at least 300 Yards.

Stay away from David Garrard (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars). At 13 TD and only 1 INT for the season, Garrard has been a very serviceable starter, but this is not the week to use him. Garrard is playing at Pittsburgh in a game the Steelers have to win. If you add in the fact that the Steelers give up the second least passing yards per game in the NFL, you get a very risky start if you own Garrard.

RB - Play Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers). Like many of this years first rounders, Gore has been disappointing. Expect Gore to finally give you the production this week that you were expecting when you drafted him. He will be playing on National TV for one of the only times this year and will be against a bad Bengals team (ranked 23rd against the run). Look for Gore to find the endzone and get to 100 yards for the first time in 3 games.

Stay away from Justin Fargas (RB, Oakland Raiders). Fargas is having a career year (920 Rushing Yards and 3 TDs) but is against a Colts team that is getting on a roll. The Colts are average against the run (Ranked 17th in the NFL), but they should be well ahead of Oakland most of the game, forcing the Raiders to pass. Stay away from Fargas this week if you can.

WR - Play all Patriots WRs (Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney). The Patriots are going up against their spygate enemies in the Jets and will be putting up a lot of points. Don't get scared off by the weather report (snow is expected in Foxboro), the Pats will still be passing and they will still be getting TDs. Any of these 4 WRs are worthy of starts this week.

Stay away from Derrick Mason (WR, Baltimore Ravens). Mason, even on the very poor Baltimore offense, has totalled 872 Receiving Yards and 3 TDs, making him a very decent Flex player in most leagues. Look elsewhere this week, however, because the Ravens offense is going against a Dolphins team desperate for a win and giving up the second least receiving yards per game in the NFL. I actually think the Dolphins have a shot to get the first win of the season here, but if Baltimore can pull it out it'll be because they ride the run to victory. Stay away from Mason this week.

Survivor of the Fittest:

It was another win last week with the picks, as the Jaguars helped me push my record to 12-3 for the season. It's normally not a great idea to go with road teams but the pick here is the Seattle Seahawks on the road over the Carolina Panthers. Seattle is getting healthy and they are playing their best ball of the season. Look for the Seahawks to get their 6th win in a row this week, rather easily over the Panthers.

Have a Great Week 15!!!

Smiles & Frowns: Win or Go Home

I’m a mellower manager these days, but it’s still painful to lose a game by only a narrow margin, especially a playoff game. Every point counts, obviously, and that point is magnified in the playoffs.

I lost a couple close games this past weekend; a season building team chemistry, overcoming draft busts, pretending my players were real, making gratuitous calls to friends to discuss trades I knew would not happen, begging Amani Toomer to throw a touchdown pass to himself—and now it’s all over. All you can really do is put yourself in the best position to win each game, and if that’s not enough, hope for the incredible. The incredible occasionally does happen, by the way:

A few years ago a friend of mine was in a very tight game where his only remaining player was Marvin Harrison, and the other owner had Peyton Manning and a narrow lead. The only realistic way to win was a Harrison rushing touchdown or for Harrison to catch a touchdown pass from someone other than Manning. Well, Manning dropped back and threw a screen (behind the line of scrimmage) to tight end Ken Dilger, who heaved the ball downfield to Marvin for a late forty-something yard touchdown pass. My friend’s head nearly exploded, and he went on to win.

The Marvin Harrison Affair was as gratifying as another friend’s tragedy involving Daunte Culpepper during his Viking days. A late Culpepper touchdown put my friend’s squad ahead by a tenth of a point. An absolute miracle, right? Wrong. The Vikings’ opponent tried to rally late only to turn the ball over, bringing Culpepper back on to the field to take a snap, then two steps backward and a knee—recorded as negative two rushing yards. My friend lost his game as a result. His head nearly exploded.

But it’s not always about the end; it’s about the ride. That, and winning. So really, it’s about winning. If you’re still in the dance, good luck this week.

A look back at a couple roster decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: K Matt Bryant or K Lawrence Tynes

Theory: Choosing a kicker is like making soup—choose the best ingredients

The Scenario: I know the “theory” sounds crazy, so let me explain: kickers are often overvalued in drafts, and overlooked once the season has begun. You have to pay attention to different variables week-to-week to determine which kicker is the best option. For example, consider: is the kicker playing in cold weather (ball is harder and doesn’t travel as well)? Warm weather (ball travels further)? In a dome? Will weather conditions be poor (footing)? Does the opposing team have a stingy defense? Does the opposing team have an average defense but a good red-zone defense (some defenses improve when the field is shorter, which leads to FG chances)? Is the offense without a key player that could cause the offense to sputter?

The possibilities are endless. So, you’ve got to put all the ingredients together, and make as rational a choice as possible. This past week I had to choose between the above kickers. Tampa would be playing in Houston, and Bryant has been getting plenty of field goal opportunities. And, Houston is towards the bottom of the league in points allowed. The Giants would face a tough divisional opponent—the Eagles—in Philadelphia. Weather conditions looked fair, but it’s certainly colder in Philly. I decided to go with Bryant.

The Aftermath: Gruden faked us all and Jeff Garcia didn’t play. Tampa’s offense looked unavoidably different with backup QB McCown, and Bryant never got a field goal attempt. Meanwhile, the Giants stalled three times in the red zone leading to field goals of 19, 23 and 23 yards.

Verdict: All you can do is pick the best ingredients. All things equal, I went for the kicker in warm weather and the team facing what I thought was a weaker opponent. Didn’t work out, obviously. The eight-point differential actually would have won the playoff game for me, too. I didn’t draft either of these kickers, I should note. Don’t draft them too high, or at all, but don’t overlook them.

Decision #2: WR Santana Moss or WR Sidney Rice

Theory: Don't worry about "missing out" on the points

The Scenario: Moss and the Redskins had a Thursday game this past week and I was torn between starting Moss and Rice. The Thursday game forced me to rush a decision. The Redskins were coming off an emotional week, and then they wouldn’t have much time to prepare for another game on Thursday.

When the players are close, I think that managers have a natural tendency to want to play the guy who will be going first, to avoid having that feeling of “I missed out” on the points. Then, the Thursday guy will be staring at you on the roster for two days, as you just hope the player starting Sunday will match the output. Of course it can work out the other way and you’re glad you didn’t let the timing issue influence the decision. I fell into the trap and I started Moss when my gut told me to start Rice.

The Aftermath: Both had underwhelming performances—Moss caught three for 29 yards and Rice had two for 21.

Verdict: I ignored my intuition and started Moss. In that regard, I screwed up. Moss hasn’t been healthy for some time and he was playing on three days rest. I should have started Rice. But, the points worked out in my favor.

***Please also see the comments to the Dec. 4 article discussing why you should sometimes err on the side of caution instead of guessing between two running backs in a committee.

Good luck this week.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 14: Playoffs Begin

For almost all leagues, the Fantasy playoffs are now in full force. Unlike real professional football, the seedings truly mean nothing just as long as you make the playoffs. On any given week, that fantasy juggernaut on your club may run into a tough matchup, deal with tough weather, or be benched with their team clinching a seed in the NFL playoffs. While the regular season can always be a grind, now is the time when fantasy managers must buckle down and do their homework in order to win that desired league championship. Here are the highs and lows of what Week 14 brought to us…

STUDS

1. Trent Edwards – It definitely may not have been pretty at times, but when it was all said and done, Trent Edwards had a huge day for the Buffalo Bills. With each game being a must win for the Bills in the wildcard hunt, Edwards stepped up and led his team to a 38-17 beatdown of the lowly Fish in Orchard Park. On the day, Edwards finished 11-23, 165 yards, and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. The Bills will head to Cleveland next week in a huge matchup vs. the Browns..

2. Jason Witten – Just when you thought it was safe to say Jason Witten and the Cowboys were dead in the water today vs. the Lions, the former Tennessee Volunteer and Tony Romo took over. Down 6 with under two minutes left and no timeouts, the Cowboys came right down the field with no problems and eventually took the lead with a beautiful touchdown grab by Witten. When it was all said and done, J Witt had a whopping FIFTEEN CATCHES for 138 yards and that aforementioned game winning touchdown grab.

3. LaDanian Tomlinson – After struggling to get going for nearly the entire first half, LaDanian Tomlinson and the Chargers eventually pulled off a huge overtime victory in Nashville. L.T’s 146 yards rushing, 27 yards receiving, and and 2 touchdowns were definitely the difference in the Bolt’s 23-17 victory Sunday, all but assuring the team the AFC West crown.

4. Plaxico Burress – Struggling for weeks with nagging injuries that have affected his performance greatly, Burress finally showed up on Sunday in the City of Brotherly Love. In a game in which Eli Manning was finally efficient throughout, Burress dragged in 7 balls for 136 yards and a touchdown in Big Blue’s 16-13 victory. With the 5^th spot in the playoff race about to be clinched for the Giants, Burress owners must remain cautious in the event the Giants bench the receiver to heal his injuries before playoff time.

5. Ryan Grant – After weeks of running back questions in the beginning of the year, the Packers have definitely found their answer heading into the playoffs with Mr. Ryan Grant. Since earning the starting gig, Grant has not disappointed with Sunday being no different. In a game in which temperatures were in the mid teens, Grant carried the rock 29 times for 156 yards and a touchdown in the Pack’s 38-7 rout of the Raiders in Lambeau.

6. Marion Barber – Anytime you scored three touchdowns, your name must be noted somewhere. For MB III, those touchdowns along with his 10 receptions and 100+ total yards were a great holiday gift to all his owners countrywide.

7. Tom Brady – is there even a question anymore???

DUDS

1. Vinny Testaverde – After initially starting out as a nice, feel good story when he had his first start a few weeks back, Vinny Testaverde is definitely beginning to show his age. With the offense sputtering in all phases of the game, a matchup Sunday vs. the hot Jacksonville Jaguar club was not what the Panthers had hoped for. Before getting pulled in favor of a backup, Vinny was a dismal 13-28 for 84 yards and an interception. While Vinny has already expressed his interest in returning next season, one must wonder if there are any teams out there that would take a chance on the 43 yard old quarterback.

2. Josh McCown – For years, Lambeau Field has always been considered one of the toughest places to place for visiting clubs in the month of December. Unfortunately for Josh McCown, Sunday was a day in which he had to learn the hard way. Before being replaced by Andrew Walter, McCown went 7-15 for 110 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs in that blowout loss to the Cheeseheads. While the team has definitely grown leaps and downs from last year, the constant revolving door of quarterbacks from the bench to under center needs to become more consistent going forward.

3. Baltimore Ravens – How does a team with leaders like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Derrick Mason get embarrassed that bad on national television!?!? Right from the outset, this Ravens club looked the polar opposite of what they looked like last week vs. the Patriots on Monday Night Football. That 43-20 final score is much closer than it could have been if the Colts would have gone full throttle all four quarters…

4. Kolby Smith – Going up against a suspect Denver rush defense, many including myself expected Kolby Smith to have a day to make fantasy owners smile. The result instead was 13 carries for 12 yards. The Chiefs and Smith would of nearly been just as good if they would of stayed in Kansas City and forfeited the game. Another ugly performance for Herman Edwards’ crew..

Matt's Stats: Week 14 NFL Preview

Playoff time is finally here, so no time to cry about the busts or injured players (Reggie Bush anybody?) that are impacting your team this week. By this point of the year most owners should know which Players to start on an every week basis so instead this week all players listed to "Play" will be fringe players on the rise, that will be great starts to make up for your injured starter as you enter the postseason. It is time to get right into which Players should be started as you look to advance past Round 1:

"Play" or "Stay Away":

QB - Play Tarvaris Jackson (QB, Minnesota Vikings) this week. As someone who is going against Jackson this week, I hate to say it but Jackson makes a great injury replacement for the week. Jackson is against a bad 49ers defense that is ranked 20th against the pass. 3 of Jackson's 5 TDs this season have come in the last two weeks and as he continues to gain experience Jackson's stats will only go up. The Vikings are on a roll to the Playoffs, so if you are having QB trouble entering the Playoffs give Jackson a shot, you won't be disappointed.

Stay away from Jay Cutler (QB, Denver Broncos). At 13 TD and 12 INT for the season Cutler has been disappointing and don't expect much of an improvement this week against Kansas City. The Chiefs may be bad, but Herman Edwards still knows how to stop QBs as evidenced by their defense ranking 7th in the NFL against the pass. Stay away from Cutler this week if you hope to reach the second round of the Playoffs.

RB - Play Aaron Stecker (RB, New Orleans Saints). Stecker's stats have not been that impressive so far with 200 Rushing Yards and only 1 TD, but remember these are all as a backup. Lifetime as a backup with Tampa Bay and New Orleans he has totalled 317 Rushes for 1,220 Yards (a 3.8 yards per rush avg.) with 4 TDs, as well as 140 Receptions for 1,005 Receiving Yards (a 7.2 yards per reception avg.) for 2 TDs. Now that Bush is gone, Stecker will get a lot of carries and gets to play against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th against the run. If you go by his lifetime averages, at 20 rushes and 5 receptions, Stecker would total 76 Rushing Yards and 36 Receiving Yards. If you add in a possible TD to that, you get a very respectable start as a replacement RB. If you are in injury trouble at RB, as many teams this time of the year are, Play Aaron Stecker.

Stay away from Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers). After a nice Week 12, Gore was back to his disappointing self totalling only 58 Rushing yards and 0 TDs. I know he is injured and it isn't his fault that he is the only person with any talent on the offense, but none of that helps you win Fantasy games. Gore goes up a Vikings defense that is #1 in the NFL against the run. Stay away from Gore this week if you have other options.

WR - Play Justin Gage (WR, Tennessee Titans). Gage is quickly becoming the favorite target of Vince Young, having at least 64 Receiving Yards over the last 4 games with 2 total TDs over the same period. Gage is against San Diego this week, which while leading the NFL with 20 INTs, only ranks 24th in the NFL in Receiving Yards allowed. Play Gage this week and expect 75 Yards and a TD.

Stay Away Lee Evans (WR, Buffalo Bills). Evans is a very streaky player who has been struggling lately. He has been unable to get into the endzone or get more then 65 Receiving Yards over the last 4 games. The Bills are playing a bad Miami team, but they have a Secondary that is giving up the 3rd least Receiving yards per game in the NFL. Stay away from Evans this week if you hope to advance in your Playoffs.

Survival of the Fittest:

The Browns losing to Arizona brought my season record down to 11-3 for the season. The pick this week to get back on the winning side is the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Carolina Panthers. Last year the Jaguars were 8-5 and collapsed down the stretch to finish outside of the Playoffs at 8-8. After a close loss to Indianapolis last week, the Jaguars will look to rebound this week at home against a bad Panthers team and to insure that no talk of a collapse starts up again this year.

Have a Great Week 14 and Good Luck in the Playoffs!!!

Smiles & Frowns: Fortunes Change Fast

If you made the post-season dance, I hereby extend my congratulations. If you didn’t, rest assured that fortunes change fast.

Just ask Mangenius, or the currently 0-12 Dolphins (picked preseason by Sports Illustrated last year to win the AFC), the Saints and Bears (appeared in last season’s NFC Championship game, currently at 5-7 apiece), Carrie Underwood (dumped by Romo) or the fantasy-owners of Vince Young and Shaun Alexander. At least Mangini lost a lot of weight.

You can also ask the Buccaneers (4-12 last year), the Browns (also 4-12 last year), Chris Chambers—traded mid-season from the winless Dolphins to the AFC West leading Chargers, Jeff Garcia—hero, throwaway and hero again, and Tony Romo—hero, goat and hero again (brief aside: a friend pointed out to me recently that since the realignment beginning in 2002, the last place team in the NFC South has finished first in the division the following season every year, and the Bucs will continue that bizarre tradition this year).

Things change fast in the NFL and fantasy football. People hop on and off the bandwagon. Actually, it’s not really a bandwagon anymore—it’s a more modern, accessible, swiftly moving vehicle. Those of you that picked Laurence Maroney in the first two rounds, it’s not your fault. And those of you who “took a chance” on another Patriot named Randy Moss in the third round, well done.

So if you didn’t make the post-season, go get some Cheez-Its and sulk for a while. If you did, good luck!

A look back at a couple important decisions from this past week:

Decision #1: RB Thomas Jones or RB LenDale White

Theory: Ignore the stats-- go with the better player

The Scenario: Heading into this game, Thomas Jones did not have a touchdown in the previous 11 games. He was also held to 67 or fewer yards in seven of those 11 games. The whole Jets team is underachieving. On the flipside, LenDale White followed up three 100-yard rushing games with a combined 81 yards in the following three games. He carried the ball only 29 times during that stretch for the sputtering Titans. White still had five more touchdowns entering Sunday’s games.

The Jets would play at Miami, ranked at the bottom in rushing defense. However, this was Miami’s “most winnable” game left on the slate this year. I expected the Dolphins would make a decent showing. The Titans were hosting Houston, also ranked in the bottom third for rushing defense. I also couldn’t ignore the fact that the Jets were underdogs to a defeated team while they’ve been playing “competitive” football all year. That had to spur some anger. So I decided to go with Thomas Jones, the veteran, twice a 1000-yard rusher, hoping that he would play angry. I felt he was the better player and the better option.

Aftermath: Almost a push. Both scored a touchdown. Jones rushed for 15 more yards, although he averaged only 3.1 yards per carry (Miami showed some pride).

Verdict: Push. You could make a decent case for both. In the end, Jones did have twice the number of carries as White. All you can really ask for is those opportunities.

Decision #2: WR Sidney Rice or WR Muhsin Muhammad

Theory: When you’re playing spoiler, you’re entitled to be irrational

The Scenario: My team has been out of contention for a while in one league. It’s a league where owners can trade players for future draft picks, and I had my “firesale” several weeks earlier. But I’ve been really enjoying the role of spoiler or the team that makes life more difficult, pouncing on every promising free agent.

This week, in what was guaranteed to be my last game of the season in that league, I was scheduled to play the first-placed team. I had a fairly competitive squad with Steven Jackson, my keeper, and a patchwork of guys including Kurt Warner and Kolby Smith. I needed to choose between Rice and Muhammad for the last receiver spot.

When you’ve got nothing to lose, I think you’re entitled to be irrational, so I decided to pick the guy with the better name. Mushin Muhammad offers alliteration, and it sort of flows off the tongue. He also has a good nickname, “Moose”, so it sounds like boooos when the home crowd calls him. On the other hand, Sidney Rice has the same last name as the best receiver in history of the game, Jerry Rice. Sidney Rice also flows off the tongue very well. I said the name out loud a couple times before deciding that Sidney Rice was the cooler name.

Aftermath: Sidney Rice caught five for 53 and a touchdown, compared to Muhammad’s three for 52 against a Giants secondary without starting free safety Gibril Wilson and corner Aaron Ross. My totally irrational decision-making paid off en route to an upset over the first placed team.

Verdict: Dumb luck.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 13: Peyton's Place

As we head into the December portion of the NFL schedule, it should be a time where we are focusing on key divisional races and which teams are going to take that next step to the playoffs. However, after this past week, many NFL fans were faced with the harsh reality of life. Just this past week, the NFL lost one of it’s budding superstars when Sean Taylor was brutally attacked and killed in his home due to a gunshot wound near his thigh. Throughout the league, both players and coaches as well as fans did their part in remembering the 24 year old All-Pro Safety from the Washington Redskins. It is acts like these that are brutal reminders of how professional athletes are humans like everyone else. With that being said, here is the rest of what Week 13 had to offer….

STUDS

1. Peyton Manning – After a few weeks of being in an uncharacteristic lull, Sunday was a time for Peyton Manning to show why he is considered one of the game’s elite. Playing against a Jaguar defense that notoriously has played well vs. the Colts, Manning’s level of play was superb in Indy’s 28-25 victory over Jacksonville. When the final whistle blew, Manning’s stat line impressively read 20-29 for 288 yards and 4 touchdown passes (only 1 INT). Now if only his brother could be as consistent as he is…

2. Hines Ward – When you look around the NFL, there are few teams with a brighter history than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Whether it is Terry Bradshaw, Joe Green, Jack Lambert, or Franco Harris, the Steelers have always been a team built on tradition. After Sunday night, we can officially add Hines Ward to that exclusive class. With his 11 catch, 2 touchdown night, the former Georgia Bulldog officially became the club’s all-time leader in touchdown receptions, an honor that couldn’t go to a better person than #89.

3. Derrick Ward – With doubt being to creep into the mind of New Yorkers regarding the direction the Giants have been heading, the team knew they had to take care of business in Soldier Field to put some of the naysayers to rest. With Eli Manning getting off to another slow start, it was Derrick Ward who kept the Giants in it until the end before unfortunately breaking his leg. On the day, Ward carried the rock 24 times for 154 yards and a score in the team’s 21-16 comeback victory.

4. Torry Holt – After starting out the season 0-8, the St. Louis Rams are beginning to play great football by winning three out of their last four. One of Sunday’s big stars was Torry “Big Game” Holt, whose 6 catches, 135 yards and 1 TD were a major catalyst for the team’s 28-16 victory vs. the Dirty Birds in St. Louis.

5. Earnest Graham – Don’t look now, but the Tampa Bay Bucaneers are now 8-4! Coming off a year in which they had one of the league’s worst records and a top five pick in the NFL Draft, John Gruden and the Bucs are very close to winning the AFC South crown with 4 games left to go. In Sunday’s wild, last second win vs. the Saints, Earnest Graham did the job for his team by gaining 106 yards on the ground with 1 TD and 7 receptions for 37 yards. With such an impressive season filling in for Cadillac Williams, Earnest Graham may have earned himself a look for a starting gig come next season.
   

DUDS

1. John Beck – So much for a successful home opener! My Fish are now 0-12, due in part to a very poor game from rookie quarterback John Beck. Known for his smart plays and good decision making, Beck threw three interceptions on the day and no touchdowns in the team’s 40-13 loss to the rival New York Jets. If Beck does not have a few good outings the rest of the way, the Dolphins will be faced with a tough decision about whether or not to take a quarterback in the draft.

2. A.J. Feeley – After nearly beating the Patriots last week on the road, A.J. Feeley was awful this week at home vs. the Seattle in a must win. Overall, A.J. completed than less than 50% of his passes and tossed 4 interceptions in the team’s 28-24 loss vs. Lofa Tatupu and the Seahawks.

3. Carson Palmer – Whenever you go 17-44 in the air, you know that you are going to be in for a long day. When you combine that with only throwing for 183 yards, it is no wonder that Carson Palmer and the Bengals looked lost offensively last night vs. the Steelers…

4. Brett Favre – Despite being known for his heroics in the big game, Brett Favre was absolutely terrible on Thursday night in the colossal matchup vs. the Cowboys. Before succumbing to injury late in the 2^nd quarter, Brett went 5-14 for 56 yards and 2 interceptions, equating easily to one of his worst games of the year for the Pack.

UNTIL NEXT WEEK!!!