Bennett & Bodin on Baseball IV: The Colton & Wolf SMART Strategy to $$$

The projections have been made. You have reviewed your notes. Now, it is now time to make some of the final decisions. At this time, you are probably considering hundreds if not thousands of options about who to select.

To win a fantasy league, an owner must have a strategy in mind. To paraphrase long-time LABR owners Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, owners need a set of principles to guide them. Without a system in place, the owner will be tempted to throw good money after bad and make decisions during the year that are not the wisest.

This will be theme throughout the remainder of our articles. However, first, as you are probably wondering ....

WHO ARE COLTON AND WOLF

Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf have managed fantasy teams in leagues like LABR for several years. They have been very successful, winning at least two LABR titles and finishing high in the standings on many of the other competitions. Glenn Colton is a big-firm lawyer. Rick Wolf is a long-time fantasy sports executive. Bodin had the pleasure of competing against Colton and Wolf in the 2004 AL LABR League and Bennett battled Colton and Wolf in the 2005 AL LABR League. This article is based on the article on their SMART Strategy System, which first appeared on Rotoworld.com in 2004.


OVERVIEW OF THE SMART SYSTEM

The five basic principles of the SMART System are Scarcity, Management, Anchor, Relievers, and Team. The acronym SMART comes from the first letter of these principles.

Colton and Wolf claim that the SMART System is simple, straightforward, and battle-tested through their participation in expert leagues such as LABR and the Tout Wars. They use the SMART System in selecting their team.

DETAILS OF THE SMART STRATEGY

We now discuss the five principles of the SMART System in more detail.

Scarcity

There are positions where the talent level is scarce. The owner’s job in preparing for a draft or auction is to identify these scarce positions. This can easily be accomplished by listing all of the players eligible to play at a position in the order of the owner’s preference. By assigning a $ value to each player, an owner can quickly determine the positions that are scarce.

Knowing the positions that are scarce allows the owner to do the following:

(1) Bid a little higher than $ value on a star at a scarce position. For example, Joe Mauer at catcher may be considered a star at a scarce position. Barring injuries, Mauer should outperform virtually any other AL catcher with the possible exception of Victor Martinez. This gives the Mauer’s owner a big advantage because he is not playing with a dead weight at catcher.

(2) It is easier to find productive players at positions that are not scarce near the end of the auction and in the free agency pickup process. In the auction, this allows the owner to wait a little longer before filling the positions that are not scarce.

(3) Trade a star at a scarce position. Such a trade can often bring the owner a better set of players than trading a star at a position that is not scarce.

(4) The owner should only be willing to overspend at good players at scarce positions.

Management

As we discussed earlier, the owner must carefully prepare. The owner has to visit various Internet sites to see if there are any pieces of information that may make a difference in the player’s performance. For example, what does it mean when the various Internet sites report that Manny Ramirez is in the best shape of his career and working out diligently every day in Arizona? The owner has to do reading and search the Internet for news that may make a difference on his team. The owner should also the players that may be activated in a couple of weeks.

Further, the owner must: (i) track the players who become eligible at a position that they were not previously; (ii) activate a player from their reserve squad who is suddenly playing regular; or (iii) release or place a player that is injured on the owner’s reserve squad. Injuries and trades cause position shifts and role changes. A position to watch carefully is the closer position. Several middle relief pitchers became closers in 2007 and there is no reason why this should not continue in 2008. Our criterion of category management, mentioned in an earlier article, is very close to the management criterion mentioned in the Colton Wolf article.

Anchor

Every team needs a starter that is an anchor for his fantasy team. They need a starter who can be relied upon to produce decent statistics such as: under a 4.00 ERA, under a 1.300 WHIP, 220+ innings and 160 + strikeouts. Anchors generally cannot be found on the waiver wire and the owner who has an anchor will probably demand a very high price if you try to trade for him.

Relievers

Strategizing pitching is always tricky and one of the ideas of a good pitching strategy is to minimize risk. In that regard, the SMART strategy recommends that the owner acquire a solid closer and a couple of solid setup pitchers who are second in line for saves along with the pitching anchor. In that way, half of the owner’s pitching staff is solid.

Colton and Wolf’s two basic rules for relievers are that they pitch for a winner and they throw hard. They believe that closers who pitch for marginal or terrible teams are not solid choices under the SMART strategy because of increased risk. Closers on good teams are not traded to become setup or middle relievers on other teams. Analyzing what happened in 2007 allows the owner to verify that several closers on bad teams became setup pitchers on good teams. Further, the owner should not spend too much on setup or middle relievers. Proper research and some luck can find the $1 middle reliever who becomes a closer. Make sure that the middle relievers throw hard, get strikeouts, and have a reasonable ERA and WHIP.

TEAM

In forming your team, Colton and Wolf recommend that the owner improves the odds of players having good production if these players are from winning teams. Pitchers on the good team get more opportunities to win and save games and have the benefit, generally, of better fielding and better support pitchers. Hitters on good teams have more RBI opportunities, see better pitches because men are on base in front of them, and cannot so easily be pitched around. Colton and Wolf do not recommend that owners avoid players on bad teams but to adjust the value of these players to account for these teams.

Our experience in auctions is that this almost naturally happens. Players on good teams are thrown out early in the auction and have a good chance of being bought for a contract price that is at or above their estimated contract prices. Similarly, players on bad teams are not thrown out early in the auction and have a good chance of being bought for a contract price that are at or below their estimated contract prices.

THE EXTENDED SMART STRATEGY

The Smart Strategy consists of the 5 categories mentioned above. The Extended Smart Strategy consists of 7 categories – the 5 categories mentioned above and 2 new categories. Colton and Wolf have a different name for the Extended Smart Strategy but we will not use it in this article. These additional categories assist the fantasy owner set up a proper strategy for selecting players for their fantasy team. Thee two categories are now briefly described.

Age of the Player

Colton and Wolf note that ‘players in their prime are more likely to be consistent, less likely to get hurt, and less likely to see their production plummet unexpectedly.’ They recommend taking younger players with a strong future rather than older players who are past their prime. Some players age faster than others and their production drops off quite quickly.

A surprising thing that has happened in the last couple of years is the success of some of the older pitchers and the quick drop-off in the ability of other older pitchers, and the possibility of these older pitchers getting injured. For example, consider the Randy Johnson situation in 2007 and the developing Curt Schilling situation in 2008. We generally only select the older pitcher if the pitcher is inexpensive (under $5 for example). We let other owners assume the risk of the older pitcher.

Speed

Saves and steals are similar categories. A fantasy team needs at least one genuine player who can steal on his team to insure that the team has a respectable showing in the speed category. Colton and Wolf believe that to rely on a handful of steals from a number of sources is a strategy that generally does not work. Of course, a genuine speed threat will cost a reasonably amount. The owner should look around to see if they can find a player who may not be too expensive but can be a threat to steal a number of bases.

***
Drs. Bennett and Bodin encourage comments and questions and will attempt to answer these comments and questions both personally and in future columns. Bodin can be reached at lbodin@rhsmith.umd.edu and Bennett can be reached at cdbennet@owu.edu.

Matt's Stats: Baseball Preview Edition

Grapefruit and Cactus League play is now in full force and with that comes the official time when all Owners start preparing for their draft. This week we have a preview of the outfielders. Unlike with the other positions, many leagues start up to 5 or 6 outfielders, so with that in mind here are separate rankings for the top NL and the top AL outfielders in MLB.

NL Outfielders:

1) Matt Holliday (OF - Colorado Rockies) - Holliday has always been good but he had a career year in 2007 carrying the Rockies through the September hot streak and Rocktober on the way to Colorado's first World Series appearance. Last year, Matt Holliday hit the second most HR of any NL outfielders (36 HR), led all NL OF in RBI with 137 RBI (18 ahead of 2nd place), led all NL OF with 120 Runs (15 more then the next closest), led all outfielders with a .340 avg., and even gained a respectable 11 SB during the season. Holliday clearly had the best season of any NL OF in 2007, and there is no reason to think that there should be any decrease in stats. Holliday has improved in every major category in all 4 years he has been in the majors, and as a result don't be surprised to see an increase to 40+ HR this season, as well as more RBI with the young players in Colorado continuing to improve and get on base in front of Holliday. All of this clearly adds up to making Holliday, for the first time in his career, an automatic first round pick in all formats.

2) Carlos Beltran (OF, New York Mets) - Beltran may have had an off year in a few categories last year (34 less runs scored then in 2006 and 8 less HR then in 2006), but the rest of his numbers were there, and if his unusual talking this spring is any indication, Beltran is ready to rock and lead the Mets back to a division title. Beltran is a safe end of first round pick, he will hit .275, get about 37 HR, hit 115 RBI, and collect about 20 SB as long as he stays healthy. Don't ignore Beltran on draft day, as he is still clearly one of the best fantasy producers at the position.

3) Alfonso Soriano (OF, Chicago Cubs) - Many who drafted Soriano with one of the first picks in last year's draft were disappointed with Soriano's production. He clearly did not live up to the hype, but don't let that cause you to miss out on one of the top players in this year's draft. Soriano was slowed last year by injuries and getting used to Chicago, but once healthy and adjusted he hit .320 with 14 HR and 27 RBI in the month of September. If you are in the back part of the first round, make sure to draft Soriano or you may regret it for the rest of the season. Expect stats closer to his 2006 season when he hit 46 HR and ran for 41 SB.

4) Carlos Lee (OF - Houston Astros) - Houston may like their Mitchell Report players and they may have a bad team, but don't forget Lee who has nothing to do with any of that. Lee took a lot of money to sign with Houston before the 2007 season, where he did what he always does...he hit, totalling 32 Hr, 119 RBI, with a .303 avg. This all-star is definitely worth an early round pick and projects as one of the best outfielders in the game this season.

5) Brad Hawpe (OF - Colorado Rockies) - Even with a humidor it never hurts to have a bunch of Rockies on one's fantasy players, and with that it mind Hawpe is the 2nd of 5 Rockies on this list. Like Holliday, Hawpe really came into his own last year hitting .291 with a career high 29 HR and a career high 116 RBI. Hawpe is 28 years old and entering his prime so don't forget about Hawpe who seems like an easy pick to hit 30 HRs for the first time in his career.

AL Outfielders:

1) Carl Crawford (OF - Tampa Bay Rays) - The Junior Circuit may not have the power numbers out of the OF position that the Senior Circuit has, but when it comes to batting avg. and SB these AL OF will really help your Fantasy team, as is seen with Crawford. Crawford may hit 20 HR one day, but that is not why you are drafting him. He is guaranteed to hit .300, get 50 SB, and score close to 100 Runs and this is enough to make him a first round pick on draft day.

2) B.J. Upton (OF - Tampa Bay Rays) - It may not be saying much but this year, Tampa Bay clearly has their best team in Franchise history. One of the reasons why is that they have one of the best outfields in all of MLB. Upton for years was a top prospect and finally broke out last year hitting .300 with 24 HR, 82 RBI, 86 Runs scored, and 22 SB. The Rays lineup should be improved this year giving Upton greater RBI opportunities, allowing him to get his first 100 RBI season in 2008. Some owners may be used to ignoring Tampa Bay on draft day, but don't make this mistake! There are a lot of good Rays playing this year, and Upton is one of the best.

3) Magglio Ordonez (OF - Detroit Tigers) - Ordonez is an easy pick and is clearly one of the best outfielders in the majors. This Ordonez is the exact opposite of ex-Met Rey Ordonez in his offensive ability, meaning that he can actually hit. In 2007, Magglio hit a league leading .363 with 28 HR and 139 RBI and now will get to bat in an even better lineup in 2008. Ordonez may be 34 years old, but he still has a few more big years in him, making Ordonez an excellent early round selection on draft day.

4) Vladimir Guerrero (OF - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) - Vlad has probably been the most consistent player in the majors over the last 10 seasons and is a great value pick in Round 2. Guerrero is a lifetime .325 hitter and has averaged 35 HR and 113 RBI during that 10 year period with the Expos and Angels. Barring an injury, and with added protection in the lineup this year from Torii Hunter, Guerrero will put up those same numbers again. Take Guerrero on draft day, and that's one position you don't have to worry about for the rest of the year.

5) Alex Rios (OF - Toronto Blue Jays) - Rios is another player who has continued to improve during all four years of his career. In 2007 Rios had a career high in runs scored (114), HR (24), RBI (85), and SB (17), while hitting an impressive .297. Rios, at the age of 28, is another player just entering his prime, who should be able to get to 100 RBI for the first time in his career as he continues to improve. Playing in Canada, Rios has kind of flown under the radar, but don't forget about him. Rios is one of the best outfielders in the American League.

That's all for now, stay tuned for the Starting Pitchers Preview next week. As always, if anyone has any questions specific to their teams or leagues, post them in the comments section and I will be happy to answer them in next week's column. Have a Great Weekend!!

The Puck Stops Here: Moving Day

Welcome back to another exciting edition of The Puck Stops Here. On Tuesday the NHL Trade Deadline almost passed without too much excitement, and then it happened. The Pittsburgh Penguins shocked most of the hockey world and walked away as victors of the Marian Hossa sweepstakes. Or did they?

Sure, the Penguins finally have the world-class wing to pair with Sidney Crosby, but was the price too steep? I’ll begin with this, if the Pens either a) win the Stanley Cup or b) sign Hossa to a long term deal while leaving them flexibility to keep their other young studs then this deal great. However, I doubt either scenario will occur. I do not think the Penguins will resign Hossa and I think they will lose in the Stanley Cup Finals to Dallas or Anaheim.

When the dust settled the Pens didn’t give up anything amazing, they gave a 3rd line fan favorite, an underachieving center, an underachieving recent first round draft pick and a late first round draft pick. While they didn’t give up a ton, they did give up too much if Hossa turns out to be a rental player that fails in the playoffs. The Pens gave up a lot of young depth to go for it all this year, but I think they are a year too early. I am not crazy about the deal, I don’t hate it, but at the same time I don’t like it. The only thing I do like is that Ray Shero and the Pens ownership group showed they are committed to winning and are willing to try to make it happen (Much more than can be said for the embarrassing Pirates organization).

OK, I needed to get that out, let’s get to the winners, losers and the players that broke even with yesterday’s deadline moves.

WINNERS

Brad Richards, C, Dallas: I think Richards will see a slight increase in production as he should see a regular line combination and better talent than what he was paired with in Tampa Bay. The biggest aspect Richards owners are looking forward to is an increase in his +/-, it has been an anchor killing his value this season. Now that he has shook that anchor loose Richards is once again a top 15 center.

Carey Price, G, Montreal: Price gets a big boost simply because he is now the definite starting goaltender in Montreal. He no longer has to platoon with Huet as the Habs number one goalie. This is similar to Duece McCallister’s recent knee injury, Reggie Bush’s value skyrocketed because of his potential. The same is true for Price, he has number one goalie value with the potential to be a top 6 or 7 goalie. If he is available go get him now.

Tuomo Ruutu, W, Carolina: I like what the change in scenery does for Tuomo’s value. I believe he will get a chance to skate with more talent around him and in turn should produce more. In his first game Tuesday evening, he netted a couple points. This is more a speculative winner, but in the end I think Ruutu is much more valuable in Carolina than he was in Chicago.


Eric Christensen, C, Atlanta: I think Christensen will profit from a change of scenery. Seeing him play for the last couple seasons, Christensen has a boat load of offensive talent, but he never seems to put it all together for an extended stretch. Perhaps a move to another team is enough to get EC going. I would add EC based on speculative value, but remember he had the opportunity to play with Sid and Malkin in Pittsburgh and never really produced equal to his talent level. If EC doesn’t start producing early in Atlanta, I don’t him to produce much the rest of the season.

Jack Johnson, D, Los Angeles: Like Price, JJ didn’t get traded but will benefit from an opening through the Stuart trade. JJ is the best young defenseman in the league and will be looking at more consistent playing time with Stuart out in LA. He is getting significant minutes with Blake out and now that will continue even when Blake returns. JJ may not provide the returns we are all looking for, but for the first time he will be given plenty of opportunities to do so.

Jussi Jokinen, W, Tampa Bay: It is more likely than not that Jokinen will play with Lecavalier and St. Louis which could mean a significant increase in production. I see Jokinen fitting in with the top power play unit as well. If both of the previous statements are true then Jokinen could be the biggest winner of all after the trade deadline. However, I do expect to see his +/- drop after moving from a top to team to one of the worst teams.

BREAKING EVEN

Sergei Fedorov, C, Washington: Fedorov finds himself in an interesting situation in Washington. Federov could either be a winner, loser or just break even. If he plays with Ovechkin then he is a definite winner. If he plays with Semin then he should produce similar numbers as he was in Columbus. But if he finds himself on the third line then his value significantly decreases and probably won’t be worth owning. I think he will end up playing with Semin because Backstrom has played well with Ovie. However, keep an eye on this situation. Remember to look at Washington D.C. newspapers for the developments.

Brad Stuart, D, Detroit: I see a significant short term boost to Stuart’s value in Detroit because Lidstrom and Rafalski are currently missing time with injuries. But when they return, Stuart’s ice time will decrease and so will his boost in production. However, the long term constant should be a boost to his +/- now that he plays for a team with an NHL caliber goaltender. Add Stuart for now but don’t be surprised when his production decreases in a week or two.

Brian Campbell, D, San Jose: I love this deal for San Jose, they gave up little and got a ton in return. Bernier is overrated and a late first round pick in the NHL is not all that valuable. However, Campbell’s value doesn’t really change at all. His playing time will remain about the same, his production will remain the same essentially everything stays the same. San Jose is better than Buffalo but not by so much that a team switch alone will help him that much.

Steve Bernier, W, Buffalo: Despite Bernier’s hot start with his new squad, I see his change of scenery more of a lateral than a promotion. The positive aspect of Bernier’s move is that he may finally get steady linemates to get some chemistry with. The negative aspect is he is moving to a much weaker team and will no longer have the opportunity to play with Joe Thornton. Perhaps a new team is what Bernier needs to get his career going, but I don’t see it happening and expect the same out of Bernier in Buffalo.

Mike Smith, G, Tampa Bay: Smith’s value is interesting. While backing up Turco in Dallas Smith has produced some very good numbers. Many people have been wondering what Smith could do if he was the definite number one. Well now he is, the problem is it is with Tampa Bay. I do think Smith could be a number two goalie if he was playing with a decent team, but for now I view him as a good number three goalie. He should be added and started against advantageous match ups, but I don’t expect anything amazing.

LOSERS

Cristobal Huet and Olaf Kolzig, G, Washington: Huet is a big time loser because he went from a platoon with a very good team to a platoon with an average team. This will most likely mean less wins, a higher GAA and a lower save percentage. Olaf Kolzig has now lost his grasp as the number one in Washington and now has a platoon. Expect the same mediocre numbers out of Kolzig but with less wins. No matter how you slice it, each goalie has lost value; they are the two biggest losers of the trade deadline.

Andrew Ladd, W, Chicago: Ladd, once a big winner from the Ottawa-Carolina deal a couple weeks ago, now finds himself on the losing end of the latest Carolina trade. Ladd finds himself in Chicago where he will get about the same amount of ice time, but will now be playing with a less talented team and linemates. While Ladd may be able to keep his hot Feburary rolling, the odds are certainly not in his favor.

Vaclav Prospal, W, Philadelphia: Prospal’s team may have slightly improved, but his current situation got worse. He may find himself outside of Philly’s top two lines and on the third unit. If this is the case a severe drop in production is imminent. Even if Prospal finds his way onto Briere’s top unit, it still isn’t as talented as Lecavalier and St. Louis in Tampa. No matter how you look at it the situation got worse for Prospal owners.

Marc-Andre Bergeron, D, Anaheim: Bergeron suffers the same fate as Stuart. He moves to a much better team but joins an already talented group of defensemen. Any possible increase in production should be negated by a decrease in playing time. Bergeron had a little fantasy value in New York, but what value there once was is no longer there. Bergeron will have difficulty getting ice time and isn’t worth owning.

Keep an eye on what happens over the next 4 or 5 days. Players completely off the radar may be given a new role and you never know what can happen. If you see a player starting to get hot he may be worth a flier. This is a great time for speculation, as always feel free to share your opinions or ask any questions. Until next week, The Puck Stops Here.

Bennett & Bodin on Baseball III: Preparing for the Auction or Draft

[Editor's Note: This is the third article in the seven-part pre-season series, Bennett and Bodin on Baseball. The authors, Cameron Bennett and Larry Bodin, have both competed with distinction in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality ("LABR"). Dr. Bodin worked with the Director of Baseball Operations of the San Diego Padres baseball organization on a research project in 1997.]

Welcome back to Bennett & Bodin on Baseball. Today we will discuss how to prepare for your league's auction or draft:

Three Critical Analyses:

As the day of the draft or auction approaches, the owner of a fantasy team must carry out the following three critical analyses:

The owner must understand the depth charts of the Major League Baseball teams and know the position eligibility of the players.

The owner must decide upon the ranking of the players (if the fantasy teams are determined by a draft) or the price that the owner is willing to pay for the players (if the fantasy teams are determined by an auction).

The owner must decide upon the strategy that he should employ in selecting his team. Without a reasonable strategy, the owner’s team will probably not win his league.

Finding Data Sources:

The depth charts of the Major League Baseball teams and the position eligibility of the players are easy to find at various Internet sources and fantasy baseball magazines. The owner should know the hitters who are eligible at multiple positions. Productive multiple position hitters are extremely valuable because these hitters can be moved between positions and make it easier for an owner to fill out his team. A second advantage of hitters who are eligible at multiple positions are that they help to reduce the damage that an injury can do to a fantasy team.

There are many sources available for finding the ranking or the player projections and, possibly, the auction prices of the players. Some sources allow the owner to put in the categories the owner uses in his league and these sources compute the dollar values of the players. Some sources are free and other sources charge a fee for their information. The data from some of the sources are formatted to be Excel compatible. These sources are quite valuable because they allow the owner to do his own analyses in Excel.

The owner may want to introduce his own metrics into the analysis. As such, the owner can spend considerable effort carrying out their analysis or just accept the projections, rankings and auction prices of the source that the owner is using.

We are not going to go into describing processes for determining the $ value for each player in fantasy baseball. However, the following book, “How to Value Players for Rotisserie Baseball” by Art McGee (from Shandler Enterprises) is devoted to this question and related questions. It is a very interesting book, especially for the statistical junky. Bodin has just begun to read this book and believes it could be of use to the fantasy baseball owner. However, we are not able to go into further detail on McGee’s approach at this time.

Auction Price Values:

The auction prices assigned to the players are only good at the beginning of the auction. Once players are selected or players are kept, the auction prices of the players may be either too high or too low. The rankings of the players that have not been selected at a position, however, are probably still valid as the auction or draft proceeds.

Marginal Value of a Player:

A suggestion that may be useful to the owner who participates in a keeper league under an auction format is the notion of the Marginal Value of a Player. The Marginal Value of a Player is defined to be the following:

Marginal Value of a Player = Projected auction price of a player – Actual contract price of the player

For example, suppose that Carlos Pena’s projected price is $20 and his actual contract price is $12. Then, Pena’s marginal value is 20-12 = $8. The marginal value says that Pena is projected to be worth $20 and will only cost the owner $12. Thus, the owner that saves Pena at $12 has an additional $8 to spend on other players in the auction

Using Marginal Value to Assist in Deciding Who to Keep:

Unless an owner has an ulterior motive, the owner only want to save players whose marginal value is positive or high priced players who are approximately on value (generally high priced players are thrown out early in the auction and sell for a price that is greater than their projected auction price). For example, an owner may want to save AROD if AROD has a contract price around $38 or less.

Assume that the total marginal value of the players to be saved by the owner in a keeper league) is $30. Then, the owner conceptually has an extra $30 to spend on other players in the auction. If the owner saved players whose projected value was $100, these players had a total contract price of $70, and the total budget for the team is $260, then the owner has an additional $190 = $260 - $70 to spend on the remaining players in the auction. Thus, if he spent all $190 on the remaining players and each of the remaining players went exactly on its projected value, then the value of his team would be $290 rather than $260 – a great start to the season.

Once the owner has decided upon whom he wishes to save, the owner may want to get a set of projections with a budget of $290 to get the value of the players not saved. In other words, the projected value of the players is inflated a little to account for the $30 marginal value that the owner has due to their saved players.

In a non-keeper league, we do not have to worry about the above at the beginning of the auction. Every owner has $260 to spend where $260 is a traditional salary cap allocation to each team and no team has saved any players.

Let The Auction Begin:

In the next three articles, we want to discuss strategies that an owner could use in selecting a team. Some of these strategies have worked for some owners and others strategies have not been successful. The first of these 3 articles discusses the extended SMART strategy of Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf. Colton and Wolf have won at least 2 AL LABR leagues in the past 7 years and are excellent fantasy baseball players. The SMART strategy is a very reasonable base strategy and a strategy that an owner should consider as giving excellent guidelines for forming his team. The next article describes strategies used by the various participants in the LLRG. The third article describes other strategies that owners have attempted and is more of a potpourri of strategies.

After these three articles, a fourth article that describes what might happen during an auction based on our experience and analysis is given. At the end of this article, the reader should have a reasonable number of tools that prepares them for the auction or draft.

***
Drs. Bennett and Bodin encourage comments and questions and will attempt to answer these comments and questions both personally and in future columns. Bodin can be reached at lbodin@rhsmith.umd.edu and Bennett can be reached at cdbennet@owu.edu.

Bang the Gavel: A Real Life Fantasy Team

Would you like to share a fantasy team with 52,999 co-owners? What if that team played in real games?

On November 13, 2007, a company called MyFootballClub Ltd. acquired ownership of the longstanding British soccer club Ebbsfleet United FC. MyFootballClub Ltd. then sold shares in the Ebbsfleet United FC club to 53,000 fans, located in 70 different countries. The shareholders get to “vote on all the major decisions … from ticket pricing … to stadium development.” All voting is conducted over the Internet.

For those interested in learning more about investing in Ebbsfleet United, as well as about other public sports investments, please visit my full article on this topic at Above the Law.

Down on the Farm: Around the Infield

This week on "Down on the Farm" we are going to take a look at what infielders have a chance of cracking big league rosters this season.

(1) Evan Longoria-3B Tampa Bay Rays: With only one full season of minor league baseball under his belt Longoria looks to be ready to take over third base duties for the Rays. The former 1st round pick looks to be next in line in the crop of young talented third basemen we have seen enter the league in the last few years. Between AA and AAA last season Longoria batted .299 (AVG)-26 (HR)-95 (RBI) with a .402 (OBP) in only 485 AB's pretty good numbers for your first extended taste of professional baseball. The Rays who insist that they aren't handing the job to Longoria, moved their incumbent third baseman Akinori Iwamura to second this off season making the road for Longoria pretty clear. While there is a chance that the team may take a more cautious approach, similar to what the Brewers did last season with Ryan Braun, and start Longoria out in the minors. Don't let that fear temper your expectations for him too much, because even if starts in there, AAA won't hold him for too long. My guess is Longoria makes the team out of spring training, with the Rays finally showing promise it makes sense to put your best players on the field and stop worrying about the future. If Longoria is there all season I would say a .290-30-95 line would be very likely and with a good lineup around him those numbers could be even higher.

(2) Andy LaRoche-3B Los Angeles Dodgers: Two years ago many people in baseball thought that LaRoche was among the greatest third base prospects in the game and while no one is going to label him a bust his star has fallen somewhat. LaRoche has watched more heralded prospects like Braun and Alex Gordon pass him in the eyes of most baseball pundits. Last season LaRoche hit .226-1-10 in 93 AB's last season with the Dodgers, that followed a .309-18-48 campaign in AAA in only 265 AB's. LaRoche is battling Nomar Garciappara for the starting third base job in Spring Training, and while it won't be easy LaRoche should win the job and get the majority of AB's this season. Since LaRoche has struggled thus far in his major league career while other third basemen have flourished, he will be over looked come draft day. Use this to your advantage, while he probably won't be your starter in most leagues LaRoche could be a steal as a Utility or IF type player in your league. LaRoche should flirt with batting .300 as a rookie and I think he will give you solid power number in the 20-25 HR range

(3) Daric Barton-1B Oakland Athletics: A's fans have been awaiting Barton's arrival in Oakland since the team acquired him in the 2004 trade with the Cardinals for Mark Mulder, and given his success in his September call up it seems as though Barton is here to stay. While this is a bit of a stretch to say Barton is in a position battle as the A's don't have much legitimate competition for him in camp, Barton must continue to produce to keep the starting job. Last season in his call up Barton hit .347-4-8 in only 72 AB's, this followed a minor league year where he hit .293-9-70 in 516 AB's. Barton's biggest value is his batting eye as he walked more times then he struck out (78-69) in the minors. The negative for Barton is contrary to his call up numbers Barton is not likely a 30+ HR first baseman. So while a fantasy owner needs realize his limitations, don't write off Barton to be Sean Casey just yet. So consider Barton to be a solid Utility option on your team that will help in Average, Runs, and RBI.

(4) Brandon Wood- SS/3B Los Angeles Angels: Wood like LaRoche was on top of the prospect world back in 2006 but now has slipped under the radar somewhat. Wood who last season moved over to third base, is being asked this season to switch back to shortstop as the Angels traded Orlando Cabrera in the off season and have an open position battle under way. Wood will have to battle Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar for the starting job, Izturis is the most known commodity of the three but doesn't have the offensive potential of Aybar or Wood. Between Aybar and Wood, Aybar is probably the better defender and has good speed with the ability to steal 35-40 bases, he lacks the one thing that Wood has that the Angels desperately need; power. In 2005 Wood hit .321-43-115 in 536 AB's in High-A ball, since then Wood has hit .276-25-83 in 2006 and .272-23-77 last year in the minors. During his time with the Angels last season he struggled hitting just .152-1-3 in 33 AB's. Don't let the decrease or his small sample of big league numbers scare you, Wood is a middle of the lineup hitter who can hit 30 HR's and steal around 15 bases a year. Though Wood might not win the starting job in camp the Angels will need his bat in their lineup if they are to compete with the Indians, Tigers and Red Sox. I think Wood is starting by May and keeps that job for the next 10 years, you could do a lot worse then a shortstop who hits .280-25-90 for your fantasy team.

Next week we will take a look at some outfielders looking to win a starting role. Have a great week.

Smiles & Frowns: The Fantasy Baseball Oscars, Part I

You’ve seen the rankings, looked at last year’s stats, and maybe even picked up a magazine, or two. But, you haven’t read this kind of bizarre analysis: I’m going to hand out some awards in an “Oscar” themed style, to highlight some of the fantasy-baseball cautionary tales and discuss some drafting principles to keep in mind. You can’t draft your team without this guide!

I decided to do this partly because I wanted to do something Oscar-themed, and mostly because I didn’t want to write something duplicative of my colleagues’ work. As you will see, I have bestowed upon each player an award named after a particular actor, linking the two based on their respective career-arcs, status and reputation.

1. John Lackey (SP, Angels) – Winner of the "Philip Seymour Hoffman Award for the Underappreciated and Not Very Good Looking Guy That Quietly Leads Your Team.”

On my watch, Hoffman is one of the most talented, consistent and versatile actors in Hollywood. Hoffman delivers every time. He was outstanding in some of his earlier and supporting roles in The Big Lebowski, Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and really came into his own in 25th Hour, Mission Impossible III and of course, his Oscar Winning performance in Capote.

Lackey has been one of the most consistent and productive pitchers in baseball for the past three years; he’s made 33 starts in each of the past three seasons, throwing over 200 innings in each of those seasons with 179, 190 and 199 strikeouts. He also recorded 46 wins over that span. Bottom line: this guy is going to put in a lot of innings for you, week after week. And he’s consistent each time out, too. Lackey only gave up four or greater earned runs six times in his 33 starts last season. So, he might hurt you once every 5-6 times out, but even when he does get knocked he usually goes six innings into the game so the damage is minimized. His K/BB (strikeout to walk ratio)—an under-appreciated statistic in my opinion—was 3.44 last year, indicative of excellent control. I can’t understate the value of a guy that not only strikes people out, but also doesn’t allow freebies to the base path.

The other, obvious connection, of course—neither of these guys are particularly good looking. But damn, are they good at their craft. And yes, Lackey doesn’t have the Cy Young to match Hoffman’s Oscar for Best Actor, but Lackey has finally earned recognition as one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers in the American League.

2. Carlos Lee (OF, Astros) Winner of the “Samuel L. Jackson Award for Bona-Fide Bad-Ass That Has Never Garnered Major Accolades But Consistently Dominates”

Samuel L. Jackson is awesome. He just is. As an actor, he’s exciting, intimidating, intelligent and often hysterical. I have yet to see a Jackson movie I didn’t enjoy. Not to say he hasn’t been in some poor movies (The Man), but you can always take a smile away from Jackson’s role.

Carlos Lee, similarly, is awesome. He’s smacked between 31 and 37 homers over the last five years, with at least 99 RBI each season over that span. You can buy that kind of consistency--by drafting Carlos Lee!!! The great thing is, he’ll probably come a bit cheaper than some of the “sexier” picks this year in Curtis Granderson (maybe) or Magglio Ordonez (maybe). Lee simply doesn’t slump, and in head-to-head leagues, consistency is key. Yes, a monster week from one player is often enough to make a mediocre week a winner, but consistent producers like Lee, and like Samuel L., will anchor your cast of characters throughout a season.

3. Carlos Delgado (1B, Mets) Winner of the “Jim Carrey Award for Former Standout Making a Steadily Dramatic Decline”

Like Delgado, Jim Carrey has had a stellar career, topping out (so far) in about 2003. That’s about the time Carrey made the box-office hit Bruce Almighty and the critically acclaimed Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (I’ve always wanted to say ‘critically acclaimed’—what a fluffy phrase). Since then, Carrey has fallen off the map taking on roles in only Fun with Dick and Jane, Lemony Snicket and The Number 23. None of them were very good. Actually, Dick and Jane and 23 were terrible; I didn’t see the other.

Delgado has been a major disappointment recently too. How do you manage only 87 RBI batting cleanup in the Mets lineup in 2007? You swing at all the same pitches Carlos Delgado did last year. He looked terrible and it was painful for all the owners that had him to watch him crank out 0-fers on consecutive nights. He’s an injury risk with wrist and elbow issues and he’s and playing in a pitcher’s park. Bottom line: despite a prime spot in a powerful lineup, you don’t want to rely on Delgado as a starting 1B.


4. Todd Jones (RP, Tigers)–- Winner of the "Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson Award for The Guy That Isn’t Unbelievably Talented But Gets a Surprising Amount of Work Despite It”

In his film roles, The Rock has played essentially the same character each time out: he’s the enthusiastic, strong, one-liner dropping bullish dude. He’s good at it. I’m just amazed how many films have been made centered around that character, and how he’s continued to find new films that will feature him in that role. For example, The Game Plan, Gridiron Gang, The Rundown and The Scorpion King. Is anyone willing to tell me that The Rock is actually a good actor? Because he’s not. He’s found his niche, and he’s done an excellent job marketing himself.

His baseball counterpart is Todd Jones, who has redefined job security as a closer. Jones is a closer that sports a high-80s to low 90 mile-per-hour fastball with a little bit of movement, and doesn’t really strike anyone out. At 40 years old, he’s just not your prototypical closer. He gives up a lot of hits and seems to make it interesting almost every time. Now with the addition of Miguel Cabrera, this Tigers team should create even more save-opportunities for Jones. With flame-throwing reliever Zumaya recovering from injury, the inconsistency of set-up guy Fernando Rodney, and Leyland’s unwavering support, Jones will continue to get a steady amount of work—just like The Rock.

Call them both very opportunistic, and draft accordingly: you can probably get Jones in the 14th round and possibly beyond, and he’ll be worth the pick.

Note 1: Jones did have an excellent second half last season, with a 2.88 ERA and 16 saves in 18 chances.

Note 2: How can you not love a guy with a handle-bar mustache? I mean, really.

5. Derek Jeter (SS, Yankees) —Winner of the “Ben Affleck Award for Guy Whose Name Value Will Probably Exceed What It Costs To Get Him”

Let me qualify this award by saying that it is given to Jeter based solely on his production from a fantasy perspective, not accounting for the other intangibles he brings as a “clutch” hitter or as a leader. Having said that, I think he is going to get drafted higher than his production will warrant this season, and thus, many owners may “overpay” for him.

Similarly, I really don’t think Affleck is an outstanding actor. No doubt he’s a good actor, writer and has some solid credits as a producer, but he’s gotten some monster paychecks for some average performances in mediocre (and terrible) movies. Look at the salaries for these movies:

Jersey Girl (2004) $10,000,000
Paycheck (2003) $15,000,000
Gigli (2003) $12,500,000
Daredevil (2003) $11,500,000
The Sum of All Fears (2002) $12,500,000

Thus, I think the people and owners writing big paychecks for these two aren’t getting their money’s worth. With the exception of 2003, Jeter has played in at least 149 games every season since 1996, and shortstop is a taxing position to play. How much longer can he possibly play at a high level? Jeter will always stabilize a team in batting average and score a lot of runs, but his power is waning, the ceiling for RBI is in the 70’s, and I think he is going to attempt to steal fewer bags going forward (not exactly a Nostradamus-like prediction, but it’s part of the equation here). In 2007, he attempted to steal 23 bags and was caught eight times.

Now, take a look at Michael Young last season: Young had about 20 fewer runs and about 20 more RBI—sort of a push there; Jeter had three more home runs, two more stolen bases, and batted .322 to Young’s .315. Also consider that Young was batting .257 through the first two months of the 2007 season. Yet, Young is projected to come off the board about four rounds after Jeter.

The answer, I think—name appeal. Owners like saying that they’ve got Jeter. Don’t throw 12.5M at Affleck for a chick-flick, and don’t spend a second or third rounder on Jeter when you can get a guy like Young in the 7th.

Part II coming Wednesday. Enjoy the show!

Errors: CBSSports Projects Jayson Nix to go 88-for-105 (.838 batting average)

I know that Coors Field is a good hitters park. However, our friends at CBSSports must have forgotten to be "checking it twice" (it being their data) when they projected Jayson Nix to get 88 hits in 105 at-bats (CBSSports Projections, last reviewed on 2/23/08 at 12:00 P.M.). To readers that use third-party data, please be sure to double check their work.

Bennett and Bodin on Baseball II: How to Structure your Draft

[Editor's Note: This is the second article in the seven-part pre-season series, Bennett and Bodin on Baseball. The authors, Cameron Bennett and Larry Bodin, have both competed with distinction in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality ("LABR"). Dr. Bodin worked with the Director of Baseball Operations of the San Diego Padres baseball organization on a research project in 1997.]

The Draft

In a draft, owners move in a serpentine fashion selecting players. The position of each owner in each round of the draft is generally determined either randomly or some other rule that is adopted by the league. A primary reason for selecting players using a draft is that it is faster than an auction. In many cases, an auction can last more than 5 hours whereas a draft will generally take around 4 hours.

The Simplest Draft Selection Rule

The order of the draft in the simplest draft selection rule, assuming there are 12 teams in the league, is the following:

Round 1: Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, … , Team 12.
Round 2: Team 12, Team 11, Team 10, … , Team 1.
Round 3: Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, … , Team 12.
Round 4: Team 12, Team 11, Team 10, … , Team 1.
Etc.

3rd Round Reversal or 3RR

In the 3rd round reversal or 3RR, Round 3 and Round 2 have the owners drafting in the same order as in the Simplest Draft Selection Rule discussed above. The order of the draft is reversed from the Simplest Draft Selection Rule starting with the 3rd round. Thus, in the 3RR, the order of the draft is the following:

Round 1: Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, … , Team 12.
Round 2: Team 12, Team 11, Team 10, … , Team 1.
Round 3: Team 12, Team 11, Team 10, … , Team 1.
Round 4: Team 1, Team 2, Team 3, … , Team 12.
Etc.

The advantage of the 3RR is that it tends to equalize the draft if there are a few outstanding players. We became aware of the 3RR in the article, “NFFC to Introduce 3RR in 2007” written by Tom Kessenich in the April 2007 issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine (page 126). Bodin used the 3RR in his fantasy football league.

Allowing the Owners to Decide Their Position in the Draft

Allowing the owner to decide his position in the draft is a growing trend in sophisticated fantasy leagues. Under this approach, each owner specifies his preferred draft position. For example, the owner may declare that his preferred position in the 1st round is picking 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7. Then, the name of an owner is randomly chosen and this owner gets his first choice. If the owner’s preferred order is the one given above, then the owner gets to select 6th in round 1 and no other owner can select in position 6 in round 1.

A second owner is then chosen and this owner selects his position in the 1st round of the draft. Then, a third owner is chosen and this owner select his position in the first round of the draft, etc. The advantage of this approach is that an owner may be ambivalent about whom he perceives is the best fantasy player among the top six choices so he believes he might just as well choose in position 6 in the first round in order to get an earlier choice in the 2nd round.

Allowing the owners to decide their position in the draft and the 3RR are two interesting twists with regard to balancing a draft. Analyses have shown that these two twists help to remove the advantage that the person selecting first in the first round has in a draft.

A league can implement this approach with either the Simplest Draft Selection Rule or the 3RR or some other rule instituted by the league that the owner is participating.

Keepers in a Draft

The simplest rule is the following: if you want to save ‘X’ players, then you cannot select players in the first ‘X’ rounds.

In this case, the owner has the following decision to make in determining how many players to save (up to X) and the identity of these players. Is the owner willing to save Y players (Y less than or equal to X) and lose choosing free agents in the first Y rounds? This can be a difficult decision. Suppose the owner has 4 players that he wishes to save and X = 5 and the owner determines that these four players would be selected in the 2nd round if there were no keepers. Should the owner release all four players and select free agents in the first four rounds or should the owner save these players. There is no reason to only save 2 or 3 of these possible keepers since the 4th keeper in this example is more valuable to the owner than the other 3 keepers (the 4th keeper is like a 2nd round choice kept on the 4th round).

Example of Who to Save in a Draft (sent to us by our colleague Joe Romano).

Our colleague, Joe Romano sent us the following example for discussion: Joe is playing in a mixed AL-NL 12 owner keeper league that uses a draft to form the initial teams. Joe is allowed to save up to 5 players. The players on his short-list are the listed below, based on the 2/12/08 rankings according to http://www.foxsports.com/ (that website has no affiliation with http://www.sportsjudge.com/): Lance Berkman (25), Carl Crawford (27), Matt Holliday (4), B. J. Upton (31), JJ Putz (-), Michael Young (-), CC Sabathia (20), Carlos Zambrano (32), Chris Young (-)).

Examining the above list, the http://www.foxsports.com/ tracker indicates that Joe should saved Holliday and Sabathia (the 3 highest ranked players) , as 3 out of the other 4 who are listed in the top 50. This is where personal preference comes in.

If Joe wants pitching, then he should save Zambrano. If he wants hitting, he should not. If Joe wants speed, he should keep both Crawford and Upton. If Joe believes that Upton and Crawford may give him too many steals, then he should not save Upton (however, most of the SportsJudge team would not recommend keeping the six best players irrespective of skills in a league that allows trades).

This type of ranking is necessary when trying to decide on the players to keeper. In any event, in a 12 owner league, Joe has a 1st round choice, a 1st-2nd round choice and 4 high to middle 3rd round choices no matter who Joe decides to save. In a 15 owner league, Joe has a 1st round choice, 3 2nd round choices and the two very high 3rd round choices – Joe is in a dominating position .

We chose to use http://www.foxsports.com/ for our data because we think they did a good job (editors note: Fox is clearly better at predicting sports than politics). However, Joe could augment this approach by looking at several mock drafts and other Internet sites before deciding on the players to keep. This is a very good idea as the ranking of the players can differ by source. However, one should find some correlation between the rankings of the players between the various sources.

Other Possible Rules

Another rule that a draft league can have is the following: The owner loses his choice in Round ‘R’ if the player was drafted in Round ‘R’. This rule says the following. If a keeper was drafted in round 7, then if the owner decides to keep the player, then the owner loses his 7th round choice. In this case, the strategy is fairly obvious. If the owner believes that the player would be drafted by another team before round 7, then the owner should probably keep this player.

A variant of this rule is the following: If the player was drafted in Rounds 1 or 2, the owner loses their draft choice in the round that the player was draft. Otherwise, the owner loses their draft
choice in round R-2 if the player was selected in rounds 3, 4, 5, …… In this case, if a player who was drafted in Round 3 is saved, then the owner loses his draft choice in Round 1; if a player who was drafted in Round 4 is saved, then the owner loses his draft choice in Round 2, etc.

The problem with this variant is that the owner may want to save two players – one drafted in Round 1 and the other drafted in Round 3. Under the save rules mentioned above, the owner would lose 2 draft choices in Rounds 1 if he saved both draft choices. We do not know a completely fair resolution of this situation and the league would have to make the decision on how to handle this situation. One solution could be the following in the case of a tie, the person loses a draft choice in the round that the rule states it should be and the following round as well.

There are many variants of this idea of this rule. The league has to set the rules to be followed.

Draft versus Auction

In a draft, the person choosing first has the choice of selecting any available player and no other owner has a chance to pick up this player. On the other hand, in an auction, every owner has a chance to acquire any player as long as the owner has budget dollars available. For example, in a fantasy football draft, many owners including Larry Bodin (with his partner, John Sniezek) drafting first selected LaDainian Tomlinson and won their league.

Preliminary Notions of Strategy in Selecting a Team in a Draft or Auction

We now want to examine what an owner might do during a draft. The keepers have been named and we are on round X in the draft. The owner is about to select his next player. What strategy should the owner use in selecting this player?

Common strategies include “the best available player” or “the player with the most incremental value” or “the player that fits the most pressing need of the team”. Assume that the owner has assigned $ values to each player, even though the league is a draft league. Preparing these $ values can assist the owner in preparing for the draft.

Suppose the owner is considering selecting either Player A and Player B. His analysis of these two players is the following. Player A has a value of $25 and is the highest value player that has not as yet been selected. Three other players have values of $24 and are eligible to play the same position that Player A is eligible. The owner has a need for one player who is eligible to play the position that Player A is eligible.

Player B has a value of $22 and no other player eligible at that position has a value any higher than $17. The owner has a need for one player who is eligible to play the position that Player A is eligible.

Which player should the owner select? The best available player strategy says to select Player A while the player with the most incremental value says to select Player B.

Next Article in Our Series

We next discuss some aspects that the owner must consider in preparing for a draft or auction. We are getting closer to the BIG DAY – AUCTION DAY OR DRAFT DAY.

***
Bennett and Bodin encourage comments and questions and will attempt to answer these comments and questions both personally and in future columns. Bodin can be reached at lbodin@rhsmith.umd.edu and Bennett can be reached at cdbennet@owu.edu.

Matt's Stats: Baseball Preview Edition

Trash talking is in full force with the Phillies and Mets this week, which makes it the perfect time to preview the shortstops for the 2008 Fantasy season!

Shortstop:

1) Jose Reyes (SS - New York Mets) - Many may have Rollins coming off of the MVP award as the top ranked SS, but even after a big second half slump I still view Reyes as the top SS on the draft board. The reason for this is the SB category. Many drafters ignore that category even though it counts just as much as HR and RBI. Reyes totalled 78 SBs last year, 14 more then the next highest total. Taking HRs by comparison, 5 players were within 14 HRs of the MLB HR leader. Professor Reyes may not attempt as many steals this year after tiring out in the second half last year, but he should be a safe bet for 70 SBs if healthy during the season. Reyes also was 7th in the league in runs scored and hit a respectable .280 avg, making him an excellent first round pick. Take Reyes and be happy that you don't have to worry much about the SB category for the rest of the year.

2) Jimmy Rollins (SS - Philadelphia Phillies) - What more can you say about Rollins? He predicted victory last year in the NL East and backed it up with an MVP Season. He's a great player and for the first time should be considered an automatic first round pick. Rollins was second in the league in runs scored with 139 in 2007 and had an impressive 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 SB, with a .296 avg. After accusing Beltran of plagiarism this week, expect another big season out of Rollins in 2008!

3) Hanley Ramirez (SS - Florida Marlins) - Ramirez may be a bit underrated playing in front of empty crowds in Florida, but don't over look him on draft day. In a position weak in fantasy stars, Ramirez is one of the best. After scoring 125 Runs, and hitting .332 with 29 HR, 81 RBI, 51 SB in his sophmore season, Ramirez projects as a late first round pick as he looks to only improve in 2008.

4) Troy Tulowitzki (SS - Colorado Rockies) - Tulowitzki had an impressive rookie campaign leading the Rockies to the National League Pennant. Tulowitzki hit .291 with 24 HR, 99 RBI, and 104 Runs scored in 2007. The only drawback with Tulowitzki is a real lack of ability to steal bases after having only 7 last year, while getting caught 6 times. Tulowitzki is the best of the second tier of shortstops and should be drafted sometime in the first five rounds on draft day.

5) Derek Jeter (SS - New York Yankees) - Jeter may not put up the statistics of the top 3 shortstops, but he is clearly one of the most consistent players at the position. He won't get an MVP award this year like ARod suggested this week, but a similar season to 2007 when he hit .322 with 102 Runs scored, 12 HR, 73 RBI, and 15 SB is pretty much a certainty. You know what you get when Jeter is on your Fantasy team and if you are looking for that consistency, Jeter makes an excellent pick on draft day.

Stay away from Miguel Tejada (SS - Houston Astros). He was once an MVP but that is a long time ago. Tejada may be on a new team, but the Mitchell Report and FBI investigations will bring a large distraction to both Tejada and his new team throughout the season. There are plenty of other shortstops around and it would not be recommended to go anywhere near Tejada on draft day.

That's all for now, stay tuned for the Outfield Preview next week. As always, if anyone has any questions specific to their teams or leagues, post them in the comments section and I will be happy to answer them in next week's column. Have a Great Weekend!!

The Puck Stops Here: Pack the Bags

Welcome back to another exciting edition of The Puck Stops Here. It’s almost that time of year again, the NHL trade deadline. Over the next couple days, fantasy owners will be bombarded with rumors concerning some big names and some not so big names. However, regardless of who the player is, each trade should be analyzed for its fantasy impact. Next week I will have a rundown of the trades with fantasy implications. Until then, keep an eye on the rumors and speculate to the fantasy ramifications, you will be that much more prepared to make a move before an opponent does. Remember, every trade can have fantasy implications.

I won’t go through all the possible players on the move, there are just way too many, but I will address some situations I find most intriguing and/or likely to actually happen.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Maple Leafs are likely to be major sellers come February 26th. They have not announced concrete plans to clean house and begin a rebuilding process, however they are out of the race, getting old and have players that can fetch a pretty penny at the deadline. There are many players on the block in Toronto, the smallest name being Jason Blake, he just doesn’t fit the mold for a rebuilding team. He will command some attention from teams looking to add a winger who can score and play defense. However, he is very expensive and it could make a move difficult.

The biggest name involved in the rumors is future Hall of Famer Mats Sundin. He has a no trade clause and is expensive, but he can be a difference maker and take a solid team and turn them into a Stanley Cup contender. He has playoff experience, is a solid character guy and great leader. There are a lot of teams interested in Sundin, but he would turn Ottawa into the Stanley Cup favorite. They will have to give up Antoine Vermette, but he is a restricted free agent at the end of the season and would be difficult for Ottawa to keep.

The Leafs also have 2 very good defensemen that could be involved in trade talks. The most likely person to be traded is Bryan McCabe. McCabe is also a huge impact type player and is an excellent offensive defenseman. He is also fresh, as he has been out for much of the season with a non-lingering injury. Tomas Kaberle is also a name being thrown around, however, he reportedly has used his no trade clause to block a trade to Philadelphia. Kaberle re-signed in Toronto, he enjoys Toronto and I do not expect him to move.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning have a lot of money invested in a just a few players and they need to fix their financial problems before it blows up in their face. While I do not expect St. Louis or Lecavalier to be a part of any trade talks, Dan Boyle, Vaclav Prospal and Brad Richards have been rumored to be on the block. Boyle is another high impact offensive defenseman that could do wonders for a struggling power play unit. He isn’t cheap but he also isn’t very expensive allowing for a manageable trade. I think Philly is the favorite to trade for Boyle, because of their near miss with Kaberle, and he would have a huge impact on the Flyers who have been slipping lately.

Richards and Prospal are two forwards who could step onto a team’s scoring unit and make an impact. I believe if Boyle goes Richards will stay and vice-versa. Prospal is very intriguing because he is relatively cheap, is an unrestricted free agent, is not happy with Tampa management, can score and has young enough legs for a strong Stanley Cup push. As a Penguins fan, I would love to see Prospal paired with Crosby and Malone on the Pens top unit. Tampa needs to make a move to help free up some money to get talent and rebuild around Lecavalier.

Marian Hossa, W, Atlanta: Hossa is a superstar who is slated to get an even bigger contract come free agency. Atlanta is playing well enough to contend for a play off spot and have expressed a desire to resign Hossa. Therefore, Hossa’s departure is not set in stone. However, if Atlanta gets a good enough offer they will not be afraid to part with Hossa. Hossa would have a huge impact on any contender and an early trade for Hossa could set a tone for the trade deadline instigating other moves.

Brian Campbell, D, Buffalo: Buffalo has been victimized by free agency losing a lot of talent because they could not strike a deal. Briere and Drury left this past summer and in return Buffalo did not receive anything. When the dust settles I think Buffalo will end up giving Campbell a big contract. However, Buffalo has lost two stars with nothing to show for it. Because they have been burned by free agency in the past, the Sabres may move Campbell simply out of fear for losing him in off-season. The largest sticking point may be that Buffalo has played their way into playoff contention and without Campbell the Sabres are not serious playoff contenders.

With so many big names on the market and tight playoff races, the trade deadline could be much more exciting than previous years. Be sure to check back here next Thursday for an analysis of the trade deadline moves. Until then, enjoy the rumors, there are a lot more to come.

Bennett & Bodin on Baseball: Setting up your League

[Editor's Note: This Article is the first of a seven part series on how to prepare for your fantasy baseball draft. The authors, Cameron Bennett and Larry Bodin, are both fantasy sports experts. Each has competed with distinction in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality ("LABR")--a fantasy league formed by John Hunt, and which has featured Peter Gammons, Keith Olbermann and Bill James amongst others.]

Overview of Certain Aspects of Fantasy Baseball

A fantasy baseball season consists of the following three parts:

• The Preparation: What the owner does to prepare for the season. This aspect of fantasy baseball is critical if the owner wants to be successful. We will discuss the preparation for the auction or draft in the next couple of columns.
  

• The Auction or Draft: The auction or draft is generally the most anticipated event for a fantasy baseball owner. There are many things to consider when forming an owner’s fantasy team. We will devote a few columns to discussing the strategy the owner can employ in selecting his team and what to expect in an auction.

• The Owner’s Management of his Team: Once the owner selects his team, the owner has to manage his team. He has to pick up free agents, release players, move players between the active roster and the reserve squad, etc. We will discuss some of these ideas in a few columns that should appear in late March and April.

All three of these aspects are important if the owner wishes to be successful. Although we will discuss each of these parts in greater detail in subsequent columns, what we want to do with the remainder of this column is to try to come down to a common base among the different types of leagues. It is easier to discuss some of these issues if we have a common base.

Category Management – a Key Theme in Being Successful

A theme that we will discuss throughout these columns is the notion of category management. Most fantasy baseball leagues have 8+ categories and the teams are ranked in each category. The team that is best in a particular category gets the number of points equal to the number of teams in the league, the 2^nd place team gets one less point than the first place team, the 3 ^rd place team gets one less point than the 2^nd place team, etc. The winner of the league is the team that gets the most points added up over all of the categories that the league employs.

To be successful, the owner has to select an initial team that is competitive in most categories. The owner has to make moves that allow them to move up in certain categories while not getting severely hurt in other categories. Successful category management requires the owner to carefully assess every situation and make the moves that best benefit their team. Proper management can be time consuming and require care on the part of the owner. The owner will not win if they do not employ proper category management.

An Important Note

A fantasy baseball owner should remember the following. When you play in a fantasy baseball league, the game you must be primarily concerned about is the fantasy league in which you are participating. The major league baseball (MLB) games and baseball players provide the data and the players for your fantasy baseball league. Who wins the AL or NL should be of little concern to a fantasy baseball owner. Of course, a fantasy baseball owner should be a fan of MLB; however, this is not the primary criterion.

Considerations in Fantasy Baseball Leagues

There are many considerations in order to be successful in a fantasy baseball league. We will discuss some of the simple considerations in this article and more complicated considerations in the next two articles.

Categories

There is no standard set of fantasy baseball categories. Most 4x4 leagues use the following categories:

• Hitting: Home Runs, Stolen Bases, RBI, Batting Average.
  

• Pitching: Wins, Saves, ERA, WHIP = (hits+walks)/innings pitched.

In a 5x5 league, runs and strikeouts are generally added. Other categories that we have used are (i) innings pitched (not a great category), (ii) strikeouts – walks (a great category but difficult to manage), and (iii) total bases + total times reaching base (almost the numerator in the OPS) and a great predictor of hitting points except for steals.

Types of Leagues

A fantasy baseball league can generally be broken down into either a Cumulative Category League or a Head-to-Head League. A Cumulative Category League adds up the points that each team earns over all of the categories and the team that wins the league is the team that gets the most points.

In a Head-to-Head League, two teams go head-to-head against each other for a week. The team that gets the greater number of points that week gets a win and the other team gets a loss. The team that wins the league is the team that has the most wins. Often, in a Head-to-Head League, there are playoffs to determine the winner of the playoffs. Head-to-Head Leagues with playoffs are very popular in Fantasy Football. Since we prefer a Cumulative Category League, we are only going to consider Cumulative Category Leagues in our columns.

Trades

Some leagues allow trades and other leagues do not allow trades. Trading can be the most controversial aspect of any fantasy baseball leagues. Leagues have broken up because of unbalanced trades, possible collusion among owners, etc. We will devote an entire column to trades.

Keepers

Some leagues allow owners to keep players while other leagues do not. A no-keeper league is equivalent to every player having a one year contract. The Tout Wars League, LABR and LLRG are non-keeper leagues. In a non-keeper league, every year is a separate contest. Many of us feel that a non-keeper league or a league with only a few keepers is preferable. Other leagues like the notion of ‘legacy leagues’ and ‘long term contracts’ so owners can invest in minor league players who may make it to the majors in a couple of years.

There are positive arguments for having a non-keeper league or a variant of a keeper league. In terms of strategy, in a keeper league, an owner must decide the players to keep before the draft or the auction. More on this in a later issue.

Issues Regarding Selecting Players Using a Draft

Owners in some leagues select their players via a draft while owners in other leagues select their players via an auction. There are some issues that one can describe regarding selecting players using a draft. These issues are described in the next article. After the next article, strategies for selecting player in an auction are described.

Down on the Farm

We are going to be focusing the next few weeks of "Down on the Farm" on the Spring Training position battles that will be taking place in Florida and Arizona in the coming month. We are going to focus this week on Starting Pitchers who look to be in their clubs rotation come opening day. While we've already done write-ups on a number of pitchers we are going to focus on new pitchers this week and recap on others before the season starts. As always though Iwould be happy to answer any questions you might have about recent delevopments surrounding some young pitchers in the comments section, so feel free to ask away.

1. Homer Bailey-SP Cincinnati Reds: Great Expectations always seem to follow Bailey as he has been the Reds top pitching prospect since being drafted in 2004, and this could finally be the year that he not only meets them but exceeds them. During Spring Training last year the debate raged on about who was the better young pitching prospect Phil Hughes or Homer Bailey. While Hughes with a brief impressive stint in the bigs last year locked himself in to the #3 slot in the Yankees rotation, Bailey looks to fight for a spot this year after he struggled during his time in the majors in 2007. Bailey, who will turn 22 during the year, went 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 45 innings last season for the Reds and will probably be an after thought to many fantasy owners this season. Look for Bailey to improve drastically in his second taste of the majors and to break camp in the rotation. Bailey could have a big year with a powerful Reds offense and a much improved bullpen, if he's in the rotation all season 14+ wins is very realistic and he has the ability to be a big time strikeout pitcher probably averaging a little over a K an inning. Though walks will be Bailey's weakness early on he has the potential to join Aaron Harang at the top of the Reds rotation by seasons end.

2. Jair Jurrjens-SP Atlanta Braves: Jurrjens differs from from the previous two pitchers on this list in the fact that he is not as widely known as a prospect. That began to change this offseason as Jurrjens was traded from the Tigers to the Braves for Edgar Renteria and looks to join the Braves rotation this season in their playoff run. Jurrjens, who is 22, won't be handed the 4th or 5th starter job behind the Smoltz/Hudson/Glavine trio but should be the favorite to win a slot going into camp. His main competition for the spots are Chuck James who is rehabbing from a shoulder surgery and Mike Hampton who hasn't pitched since 2005. This should leave Jurrjens in the fast lane to break camp in the rotation after he went 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 13 K's in 30 innings for the Tigers last year. That followed up his AA performance of 7-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 94 K's in 112 innings. Jurrjens might not be a fantasy stud right off the bat but he has a very bright future. 10-12 wins should be expected and he has the stuff to be a good strikeout pitcher while maintaining a solid ERA. Pick Jurrjens in NL leagues and watch the waiver wire on him in mixed leagues as he could be a great pick up if one of your starters falters.

3. Ian Kennedy- SP New York Yankees: Kennedy like every young Yankee pitcher had his name attached to just about every trade rumor out there this offseason but as Spring Training starts Kennedy is still a Yankee and has an inside shot at a rotation spot for the New York Yankees just a year and a half after being drafted by them. Kennedy started last season in High-A ball and ended the year pitching for the Yankees during their playoff drive. In between Kennedy had an incredible season that too often gets overlooked, as he went 12-3 with a 1.91 ERA and 163 K's in 146.1 minor league innings. He then kept that success going in his September call-up going 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 15 K's over 19 innings. While his prospects for joining the 2008 rotation are up in the air, I would say its Kennedy's job to lose. Fellow rookie Joba Chamberlain looks to start the year in the bullpen to limit his innings and while its conceviable that Joba takes Kennedy's job when he's ready to join the rotation, its just as likely that Mussina or Pettitte are injured or ineffective keeping Kennedy firmly in the rotation. Kennedy does have some negatives going for him as he is not likely a major strikeout pitcher and won't be topping your team in that category. Also the Yankees will likely limit his innings to no more than 170 innings meaning he may lose some wins to middle relief. That being said Kennedy in the rotation is a must have in AL leagues and should still have 12+ wins and a very good ERA and WHIP for mixed leagues.

4. Gio Gonzalez-SP Oakland Athletics: Gonzalez who was the headliner of the return package in the Nick Swisher deal has a bright future with the Athletics, the question for Oakland fans and maybe a few fantasy owners is when will that future be? There are no sure things in the Oakland rotation outside of Joe Blanton (and he might be traded before the season is over), giving Gonzalez ample shot to win a rotation spot for the rebuilding Athletics. His chances aren't great as he is only 22 years old and has never pitched a game above double-A, but if Gonzalez proves himself this spring he should open up in the rotation. Gonzalez went 9-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in just 150 innings last year for the Birmingham Barons and looks poised to take the next step to the big leagues. If Gonzalez makes the rotation he will have some positives going for him as he will pitch his home games in a pitchers park and still has a quality bullpen behind him. It will be important to remember that Oakland will be rebuilding and wins will not always be easy to come by and his minor league strikeout numbers could be a bit decieving as he probably won't fare as well versus major league hitters. Gonzalez does have plenty of potential so keep an eye on him but don't overdraft him as it could be a long year in Oakland

5. Jeff Niemann-SP Tampa Bay Rays: Niemann who was drafted 4th overall in the 2004 draft, ahead of Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes and Jered Weaver, looks to finally be ready to show the Rays what made him such a highly touted college pitcher. Niemann who missed time in both 2005 and 2006 with injuries finally was able to stay healthy last year and showed his talent going, 12-6 with a 3.98 ERA adding 123 K's in 131 innings of work. Niemann is far from being a lock to join the rotation out of Spring Training as the Rays have been stockpiling promising young arms for years now. That being said don't count Niemann out of the mix just yet he has the talent to be there and if he stays healthy he should be in the rotation by the all-star break if not opening day. The Rays pitching staff should no longer be thought of as Scott Kazmir and no one else. In addition to James Shields and Matt Garza, the Rays overall have improved and should add value to anyone in their rotation. Niemann could be a breakout canidate this year and regardless of the injury risk take a long look at him if he makes the rotation out of camp.

I hope everyone has a great week and come back next week when we will take a look at what infielders look to win a starting job this season.