Tuesday, December 30, 2008

First to Third: Where Will Manny Be Manny?

Monday afternoon rumors started flying that the L.A. Dodgers were interested in Adam Dunn as their power-hitting outfielder which could only mean one thing for Manny Ramirez: trouble.

Without the Dodgers in the mix, Manny might have a difficult time finding a new address for 2009. The Yankees have already spent over $400 million this off-season, the Angels say they're not interested, and the Red Sox... well I think we've all read that book already. As the off-season began, the Dodgers had offered Ramirez $45 million over two years, but quickly yanked that offer off the table when Manny and agent Scott Boras laughed at it. The Dodgers are laughing now as no one is willing to meet the leftfielder's price tag, which could force Ramirez to go crawling back to LA. - at a reduced price.

Manny's best at-bats come in crunch time and October, so look for a competitor to swoop in and sign Manny to a one-year deal. The darkhorse for Ramirez? Retirement. He flirted with the idea already and I wouldn't put it past him to take a year off if he doesn't get what he wants.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Dollars and Sense: Next on the help line...

You would think sports is our only chance to get away from the dire economic straits we read about every morning on the front page of the paper. It's not. In fact, our morning paper isn't even safe from the economic problems. The Wall Street Journal reports the New York Times is "actively shopping" it's 17.5% stake in the Boston Red Sox in an attempt to avoid the fate that tossed the Tribune Company into bankruptcy earlier this month. The NY Times hopes to fetch upwards of $300 million for their stake, but that seems highly unlikely due to tight credit markets and lingering skittishness on Wall Street. Barclays estimates the value of the stake currently falls somewhere around $166 million (think more than CC Sabathia, less than Mark Teixiera).

Across the country, NHL commish Gary Bettman is working on his best Hank Paulsen impression by coming to the aide of the Phoenix Coyotes. ESPN reports the NHL is assisting the Coyotes by attempting to find potential suitors to take over the cash-bleeding franchise. After losing over $60 million the past two seasons, the Coyotes are projected to be $30 million in-the-red this year when it's all said and done. Couple that with force-feeding a winter sport on a city with 110 degree summers and bankruptcy looks likely.

The NHL's reasoning for relocating the Winnipeg Jets franchise in 1996 made sense on paper. Tap into one of the fastest growing areas in the country and take advantage of the mostly upper-class neighborhoods like Scottsdale that surround the Glendale, AZ region. Unfortunately, Scottsdale was one of the hardest hit by the mortgage crisis over the past two years and disposable income for NHL games was the first to go. Chances are strong that a steep financial penalty exists if the team decides to break it's lease with Glendale, so bankruptcy declaration would likely provide cheaper ways to eventually sell the team and relocate (maybe back to Winnipeg?) if that's what a new owner wanted to do. What's really a shame is Phoenix is the best young NHL team you likely know nothing about, besides the fact that Wayne Gretzky is the head coach. This team is beyond loaded with young talent and on the same path the Pittsburgh Penguins and most recently Chicago Blackhawks have followed.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

State of the Union: Boston

Earlier this decade, fans in New England were treated to an exciting run of Red Sox and Patriots championships as both teams dominated their respective leagues. Meanwhile, to find a story about the Celtics or Bruins, you would've had to dig pretty deep into the sports section of the Boston Globe to find a recap of a game the night before. On December 7, for the first time in as long as many fans can remember, the Bruins were featured above the fold on the front page of the Globe. Has the torch been passed? Let's first take a look at the Bruins and try to figure out if this torrid start can possibly continue and somehow lead to a Stanley Cup Championship.

Following Tuesday's 2-0 shutout of the New Jersey Devils, the Bruins now find themselves perched atop the Eastern Conference with a 25-5-4 record. Their 54 points are second in the NHL only to red-hot San Jose who achieved the fastest start in league history through 30 games. Third-year winger Phil Kessel currently sits fourth in the league in goals with 21 while playmaker Marc Savard trails Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin by one for the assist lead with 21. The dangerous duo teams up with 6-4, 220 pound beast-child Milan Lucic to create one of the most balanced, talented, and fun-to-watch lines in the NHL. In goal, Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez are ranked second and third respectively in goals against average behind Columbus rookie Steve Mason. How could this team possibly lose?

I'm not about to say the Bruins will head into a freefall and miss the playoffs completely. I can't argue a team that starts 25-5-4 isn't one of the league's elite. But I will say they are about to cool off...and when that happens we'll begin to really see what this very young team is made of.

Boston currently leads the NHL with 126 goals...but aside from Savard and the injured Patrice Bergeron, not a single player on the roster has put up more than 63 points in a season. Once teams begin to find ways to slow down this offense, the Bruins will need to start winning some 2-1 defensive battles. While the Thomas-Fernandez tandem has been standing on their head through the first third of the season, they are facing far too many shots a game (ranked 22nd at 30.5 shots a game). Boston's defense currently features Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman, Matt Hunwick, Shane Hnidy, Mark Stuart, and Matt Lashoff...hardly an imposing top 6.

In many cases, all it takes is a few unlucky injuries to expose a team like this. Last Thursday, winger Marco Sturm suffered what looks to be a bad knee injury that might require surgery. There's no word on how long he'll be out, but two days later Patrice Bergeron absorbed another concussion which has the potential to threaten his career. If you'll remember, Bergeron was hit viciously into the boards last season by the Flyers Randy Jones and it took him months to recover enough to even ride a bike for 5 minutes. Losing key forwards like Sturm and Bergeron for a long period of time could bring this hot start to a screeching halt. I would still expect Boston to have no trouble making the playoffs, but this is a very young team. Inexperience can be deadly when the stakes are raised in the playoffs - look for the Bruins to last one round or two at the most.

If the Bruins' bubble is about to burst, what about the Celtics? SportsJudge's NBA expert Adam Primm decided to weigh in on the Celtics' chances at repeating and possibly topping the regular season wins record set in the Michael Jordan era:

On Sunday the Celtics won their 18th straight game to go to 26-2 on the season. With such a prolific start, fans have to wonder if the Celtics can keep up this pace. The Chicago Bulls record of 72 wins in a season is within reach even if the Celts cool off a little, but how feasible will it be for Boston to break that record.

Only 10 of the 26 wins have been within 10 points. However, one of those was to the 23-4 Cleveland Cavs, and two were to the South leading Atlanta Hawks. The Celtics have simply been obliterating the competition in the early part of the season. And the scary thing is, the 'Big Three' (aka the Boston Three Party) are scoring less this year than last year. Paul Pierce's scoring average is down one point and Kevin Garnett is down two. Ray Allen has improved by one point. The main reason for the Celtics improved play has been the maturation of point guard Rajon Rondo who is playing more aggressive this season and is showing he can score with the other three. The 'Big Three' may become the 'Four Horsemen' by the end of the season if he continues to improve.

The Celtics are currently on pace to finish roughly 76-6 at their current pace. However, there is no chance that the win at that rate for the full season. Given the age of this team, relatively older by NBA standards, I would expect to see them wear down a little come midseason. Also, this team has yet to experience any kind of injury. The Cavs were playing at a similar pace winning 19 out of 20 games during a stretch earlier this season. While the Cavs are now 23-4 overall, they struggled in two tough games against Philadelphia before losing on the road at Atlanta, a major reason why these three games were difficult was because two of the Cavs key players were injured in Daniel Gibson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. When those two came back, the Cavs crushed the Nuggets in Denver. The Celtics currently have a better record, and Pierce, Allen, Garnett, and Rondo are probably are better starting unit than Lebron James, Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Ilgauskas, but the Cavs are a team that are 10 deep with the bench. The Celtics bench is good, but only has 3, maybe 4 players, that can be plugged in to avoid a letdown if someone gets hurt meaning the health of the Big Three is very important to their run at 72. The Cavs had 2 guys go down and promptly lost one game and struggled in the other two. A team that isn't quite as deep will probably have similar problems in the same situation.

While I think the Celtics have a very good chance to win 70 games, I think they will fall just short of the record at 72. I expect the veteran players to wear down a little and some major contributor to be hurt for a significant period, like 10-15 days. This doesn't mean that I don't think the Celtics are the best team in the league. I am confident that we can at least pencil the Celts in the Conference Finals right now because the only two teams that have a chance of beating them in a seven game series are the Cavs and the Lakers. The Celtics should easily finish with the best record in the league, but I don't think they will be able to keep up this pace and break the Bulls record for wins.

Agree? Disagree with where the Bruins and Celtics are headed this year? Feel free to speak your mind in the comments section.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

The Puck Stops Here: Merry Christmas


This being Christmas day, I would like to wish all out there a merry Christmas.  For those of you who do not celebrate Christmas, happy holidays.  This will be a brief post due to the holiday and the limited action we have seen over the last week.

Ryan Whitney is officially back.  That's the good news.  The bad news is he looked slow, choppy, and didn't handle the puck well at all.  He will get better and be a worthy fantasy defenseman.  I have never been a Whitney fan, I think he is a lazy hockey player, and because of this he will never attain that top ten defenseman status, but he will be a solid contributor as he gets back in shape.  I hope he proves me wrong, but I have never seen a defenseman glide around on the ice as much as him.  Temper your expectations for the time being.

Paul Statsny will be out for probably 6 to 8 weeks, assuming the break isn't worse than a normal bone break.  I have to downgrade every person in the Avalanche lineup.  Statsny is by far their most talented offensive player and losing someone of his ability will hurt everyone around him.   Teams don't have to key in on him leaving more men to pay attention to other players.  You may see a slight production in one or two players but not enough to really make them worth while.

If I own Alex Semin, I am selling ASAP.  He is starting to mimic Marian Gaborik.  A player who is supremely talented and can light the lamp but can't seem to stay healthy.  Cash in Semin's point-per-game average and ridiculous plus/minus while you still can.  Semin can still fetch another top 15 forward if you act fast and catch the right owner.  I just don't trust him staying healthy for an extended period of time.

Sorry for the short post, I'll make it up to you next week.  Until then, I hope everyone has a happy and safe holiday.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

News Flash: SportsJudge Invited to Compete in Inaugural Fantasy Baseball Championship

SportsJudge was recently invited to compete in the inaugural Fantasy Baseball Experts and Bloggers Open--a new fantasy baseball competition hosted by www.FantasyPros911.com.

We invite our readership to follow the SportsJudge Team throughout the 2009 season. We also wish the Lenny Melnick, Paul Greco, Patrick Dicaprio and Tony Cincotta the best of luck with their new venture.

In Between the Tackles: Deck the Halls (and Darby's)


In this holiday season, it's not uncommon to see news clips about strangers handing out unexpected gifts from the kindness of their heart. In case you haven't seen the clip yet, NFL referee Garth DeFelice is a perfect example of the generous souls living among us. On Sunday, without warning, he hand-delivered a nicely wrapped forearm shiver to St. Louis Rams RB Kenneth Darby...basically the Rams season in a nutshell. In these days of the new NFL, expect DeFelice to be heavily fined for leaving his feet to make the tackle. Actually, maybe it would be best if Wade Phillips brought in DeFelice to help Ken Hamlin and friends learn to bring down a running back in the open field. Let's head in between the tackles and check out some of the other big stories in the NFL as we approach the 17th and final week of the regular season...

Week 17

Week 17 is notorious for frustrating fantasy owners as coaches juggle lineups without much warning. Teams that have locked up a playoff spot would like to rest their starters, but don't want to risk losing momentum. Teams out of the playoffs are basically holding informal tryouts at this point to see who they still want around for next season. It's a mess, but here's the most up-to-date information I could find for you as of press time:

~ Steelers coach Mike Tomlin continues to indicate to the media he plans to play his starters, but the odds of that actually happening might be slim. Pittsburgh had an early bye week and had endured the toughest schedule in the NFL and the players need a rest. Expect most starters to last only a few drives or a half at most against the Browns. The Steelers were beat soundly on Sunday, but the situation looked very similar to a few seasons ago. The Steelers executed a very vanilla game plan in the regular season against the Colts and were stomped, only to upset Indy on the road in the playoffs a few weeks later on the way to the Super Bowl...something to think about heading into January.

~ Expect Tennessee to approach this week in a similar fashion. If for some reason Kerry Collins is your fantasy QB, don't be shocked if Vince Young starts in his place. The Titans need to decide where and if Young fits into the puzzle for next year and this is a perfect opportunity to give the elderly Collins a rest. By the way, what was Lendale White thinking stomping on the Terrible Towel?? C'mon man.

~ Tom Coughlin seems likely to play most of his starters in Week 17 in an attempt to build momentum heading into the playoffs after sputtering along the last few weeks. Look for banged up players like Justin Tuck and Brandon Jacobs to find their way to the bench early, but this might open the door for another big week from Derrick Ward, who is still playing for that big contract this summer.

~ One would think Arizona would have no reason to push the aerial dynamo of Warner, Fitzgerald, and Boldin onto the field in a meaningless game against Seattle, but the Cardinals have been struggling and for a team with very little playoff experience, confidence is extremely important. Unfortunately, this team is built for the domes and sunny afternoons of October, not the January snow and cold like we saw last week against the Patriots. The Cardinals will likely be one and done.

~ Another team that relies heavily upon the passing game is Peyton Manning and the Colts. Week 17 is historically the Jim Sorgi week for Indy, and expect this week to be much of the same. Dungy claims he won't pull his star players, but I won't go against history. Expect a series or two out of Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Marvin Harrison before they hit the showers. While this team seems to be similar to the Cardinals on paper, I have a weird feeling if they can get Joseph Addai healthy they could make a serious run. The Colts have quietly won eight games in a row and are flying under the radar in an up-for-grabs AFC.

Side Notes

~ The Atlanta Falcons are getting all the press for such an amazing one-year turnaround, but what about the Miami Dolphins? Nothing against the Falcons, but the Dolphins were in the same situation the Lions are this year. They were lucky to squeak out a 1-15 season last year and now with a win on Sunday can find themselves in the playoffs. They marched into Kansas City last week where the conditions were less than ideal for a team from South Florida (well below 0 wind chill and big winds) and left with a much needed win. Plus, how did Brett Favre make the Pro Bowl over Chad Pennington (or Philip Rivers for that matter)?

~ Drew Brees needs just over 400 yards against Carolina on Sunday to break Dan Marino's all-time single season passing record. The Saints claim they won't alter their gameplan, but why would they? For most of the season, their "running" game has involved Brees throwing short passes to players who then proceed to run with the ball. I think Brees has a chance to get it done this week. It's just a shame that the Saints are so bad on the other side of the ball or he would be a lock for MVP.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

First to Third: Money Often Costs Too Much

At this time last year, the Detroit Tigers had basically clinched themselves a spot in the 2008 World Series with the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins. Rumors even suggest that the city of Detroit had already begun to plan its victory parade.

Not so fast. While the Tigers were winning it all on paper, they lost it all on the field, dropping an AL Central-worst 88 games. That's right, worse than the dreadful Royals. What makes it worse for the Tigers is that yesterday they were sent a bill from the commissioner's office for $1.3 million dollars as a luxury tax for their $160.8 million payroll in '08. 88 losses really is some luxury, isn't it?

What teams like the Tigers, Yankees, and [insert other $120 million plus payroll teams here] fail to realize is that in baseball, you can't buy a championship. In the 2008 World Series, the one that was supposed to be played in Detroit, the Rays and their $43 million payroll represented the American League in the Fall Classic while the Phillies ($98 million) won it all. Combined, their payroll didn't touch Detroit's, not bad considering the Yankees and Tigers paid a combined $383 on payroll to spend October at home.

Monday, December 22, 2008

The NFL: Punishing Fun Since August 2006


Wes Welker was the subject of one of my posts a few weeks ago for this. Today, I stand here in support of Wes and his snow angel. I really have no idea what is wrong with what Mr. Welker did yesterday afternoon. Perhaps, the ref's reaction was a little overzealous and the NFL will realize this isn't worth wasting time on, but I doubt it.

I am all for punishing outrageous celebrations. Joe Horne's cell phone celebration was both stupid and outrageous. I am also in support of punishing celebrations that "show-up" the other team. I am looking at you Mr. Owens. However, I am not in support of punishing innocent celebrations.

What did Welker do that was any worse than the Lambeau Leap? He didn't plant a prop for later use. He didn't do anything pointed at the Arizona Cardinals. He didn't make a statement in defiance of the league. He simply made a snow angel. It was a fun celebration in a game that was over before the first kick-off. I will be shocked if the NFL doesn't fine Welker and doing so would be another overreaction by Goodell and the league.

Matt's Stats: Thank You Aaron Heilman

As everyone knows by now, the Mets traded for J.J Putz during the Winter Meetings for a pile of players that included Aaron Heilman. While it was an excellent trade for the Mets, it had the side effect of Mets fans around the world celebrating Heilman is gone, and it also led to such headlines as "Goodbye Putz (with Heilman picture), Hello Putz (with J.J. Putz picture)" in the gossip-laden NY Post.

Yes it is true that Heilman needed a change of scenery but all anyone ever mentions is his one poor season in 2007 or that Molina HR. People forget that from 2005-2007 Heilman was one of the best set-up men in baseball posting ERAs of 3.17, 3.62, and 3.03.

I am hear to say thank you Heilman for your time in New York. You finally got your wish to start, so good luck in Seattle! And, as a late round pick in an AL-only league, you may just have some fantasy value yet.

Above the Rim: Larry Brown Starts Getting His Guys

It’s been almost 10 days since the Bobcats traded Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley to the Suns for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. It was a bit of a head scratcher for the Suns who appeared to be trying to slow the game down and focus on their interior game with Shaq and Amare; Richardson’s up tempo offensive game didn’t appear to be a very good fit initially. The Bobcats, on the other hand, give up their best offensive player in terms of creating his own shot in Richardson as well as a solid back up in Dudley.

Suns
The Suns have responded by going 3-1 in the first 4 games since Richardson suited up in the purple and orange. The lowest offensive output of that stretch was 108 in a win over Denver. In the loss, the Suns still managed 119 points, but they play about as much defense as the French during a blitzkrieg and lost 124-119.

Richardson- Although it wasn’t sure how Richardson would fit on Phoenix at first, he has responded since the trade. His scoring averaging and assists have remained consistent as he is averaging 18.3 points and 2.5 assists since the trade and 18.7 and 2.6 before. At the same time, his rebound has increased from 4.1 to 5.5 and his turnovers are down to 1.5 from 1.7. His steals are also down to 0.3 from 1.0. The biggest thing that I notice when I look at his stats is the improvement in his shooting percentage. It’s only 4 games, but his FG% is up to 46.3% from 44.1% and his free throw percentage is up to 76.9% from 74.6%. Those improvements are fairly minor, but his jump in 3-point percentage is huge. Richardson is shooting 54.2% since joining the Suns, up almost 10% from the 45.8% he was shooting in Charlotte. The most important thing about that stat is that it has been maintained and isn’t the result of just one game. In the Suns last three games, Richardson is 4-6, 4-7, and 4-7 from 3-point range. It seems that the Suns focus on their interior game with Shaq and Stoudemire have given Richardson some very open and makeable shots. He also has a 2-time MVP distributor in Steve Nash to set him up going to the hoop and on fast breaks. The Suns current starting lineup of Nash and Richardson at the guards, and Grant Hill, Shaq, and Stoudemire on the front line seems to be very well suited for Richardson’s skills. He can create his own shot if he has to, but with one of the league’s best facilitators in Nash, and good passing forwards in Hill and Shaq, Richardson is getting open shot from the outside and going to the hoop. The overall talent level also makes it easier for Richardson as defenses can’t key in on anyone because all five can hurt you if you leave them open. Richardson looks like he could be a great fit in Phoenix and is probably the player to benefit the most from this trade, both in the NBA and in fantasy leagues.

Dudley- I have liked Dudley since college because he was a player who would get physical and rebound inside but could also step out and hit a 3-pointer. It was a good mix of skills and he was able to do it well, even though he is a little undersized in the post. After a rookie season in which he scored 5.8 points and pulled down 3.9 rebounds per game, Dudley was contributing more of the same at 5.4 and 3.0 this season. His shooting percentage remained steady at 46.9% compared to 46.8% this past season. His biggest improvement this season has been his 3-point shooting where he has hit 37.5% this season, up 15.5% from the 22% he shot last season. On a team like Phoenix, this could be lead to a Dudley being a solid contributor off the bench as he can help spread the flow as a small or power forward and open up the lane while still providing toughness inside. The 3-point shooting could really help coming from either the PF spot as not many can step outside and shoot, or at the SF where he can take passes from Shaq or Amare in the post and knock that jumper down. Curiously, Dudley has only played 2 minutes of one game since the trade, picking up just a foul. I think Dudley could be a good bench player for the Suns this year, but it will be interesting to see if he gets a chance to play some more.

Bobcats
The Bobcats are a team perpetually in transition. On draft night 2007, they traded their first round pick (Brandan Wright) to the Warriors for Richardson who was supposed to be the go-to-guy for the young offense. Less than two seasons later, the Bobcats are trading Richardson for Diaw and Bell, both solid role players, and Singletary, a third string point guard. None are considered a “go-to-guy.” After 2 low scoring losses, Charlotte is 2-1 and scoring over 100 points per game since the trade though, so the offense has picked up without a primary scorer.

Diaw- Diaw was averaging 8.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in 24 minutes for the Suns. In 5 games since being traded to the Bobcats, his numbers have jumped to 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 35 minutes. The increase is partially due to an increase in playing time, but also due to Diaw getting more looks on offense. He is no longer the 4th or 5th option in the offense as he was in Phoenix. Diaw has benefited greatly from the increased opportunities. His shooting percentage has remained high at 52.9% compared to 56.7% in Phoenix even though the number of shots he is taking has more than doubled to 13.6 per game from 6.4. His 3-point percentage is through the roof at 77.8% with Charlotte after shooting 35.7% in Phoenix. I would expect that to fall, obviously, to a more reasonable 40%. Diaw has scored in double figures in the last 4 with double-doubles in the last 2. Look for his production to remain at the higher level as he continues to get more playing time and shots.

Bell- Bell is the perimeter defender that Larry Brown wanted for his team in Charlotte. While Bell does excel at defense, that doesn’t mean much to fantasy owners because Bell has never been a defender that accumulates blocked shots or steals. His minutes are down to 26 per game from 32 when he was in Phoenix and his numbers are reflecting that cut. In five games with Charlotte, Bell is averaging 6.6 points on 31.7% shooting, down from 9.6 points and 42.9%. His 3-point shooting has plummeted to 27.8% with the Bobcats from 46.8% with the Suns. Bell has seen modest increases in rebounding to 3.6 from 2.9 and assists to 1.8 from 1.3. Although he scored 21 points against Golden State on Saturday, I would probably try to trade him now while his value is still a little higher. In the 4 games prior to the Golden State game, Bell only scored 12 points total on 6-29 shooting.

Singletary- A rookie point guard from Virginia, Singletary has not had much playing time this year averaging 9 minutes in 13 games in Phoenix and almost 2 minutes in 2 games with Charlotte. On the year he is averaging 2.4 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 0.8 assists. The main thing to look for when looking at Singletary is if the Bobcats are going to make another move soon. Brown sees Singletary as a solid NBA point guard in the future, which may mean that Raymond Felton will be traded soon. Brown already drafted D.J. Augustin early in the first round to play point guard and Augustin has games of 29 and 28 points in the last month as well as two 10 assist games and he is averaging 13.2 points and 4.6 assists per game so far this season. Felton is averaging 13 points and 6.2 assists, but Brown may still want to move him and let Augustin start and have Singletary back him up. If this happens, Singletary may be worth a look although he is not playing now.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Extra Points: Week 16 Fantasy Studs


Bengals at Browns
The Bengals somehow found a way to pick apart the Redskins last week. I played the Redskins' Defense thinking that the opposite would be true. This week I am playing the Browns D/ST though. The Bengals can't do this two weeks in a row. Granted the Browns are 1-6 at home but the Bengals are 0-7 on the road. I don't like either offense in this game. In an exciting match up that puts Dorsey versus Fitzpatrick I will take the defense.

Saints at Lions
Who has been the most talked about running back of late? That would be Pierre Thomas. Ironically I drafted him at the beginning of the year but dropped him by week 2. I am regretting that choice but he is still available in some leagues. This is simple, the Lions are atrocious and are on their way to 0-16. The Saints could easily put up 50 points this week. Make sure Pierre Thomas is in.

Steelers at Titans
The game of the week is right here, a possible AFC Championship preview. You may have forgotten about this man lately, but Willie Parker is due for a game. The Titans are without Albert Haynesworth and that will leave a large hole up the middle. Parker has been injured and hasn't scored since week 9. I can see a touchdown for him, and no replay controversy.

Dolphins at Chiefs
It is simple for the Dolphins, win out and they are in. The Dolphins will stick with what has worked, and that is the running game. So who do you pick between Ricky Williams or Ronnie Brown? I'll take Ronnie Brown to bust open a few big gains and a score or two. The Dolphins are on the road and can't afford to fall to a weaker team, so Brown will pick up after two down weeks and just two scores in his last seven games.
49ers at Rams
This is a tough one and will require you to wait until game time to decide, but take Frank Gore/DeShaun Foster. If Gore is able to play, he is a no-brainer for a big day. Saint Louis is miserable against the run so even Foster is a safe play should Gore not be able to go. Keep an eye on the injury report Sunday and you may be able to snag Foster just in time.

Cardinals at Patriots
A common theme this season has been the effect of travel on teams from coast to coast. The Cardinals don't do so well when traveling out to the East so look for the Patriots offense to have the upper hand. For starters, Arizona has a weak secondary so expect Randy Moss to have a field day. Moss will be able to burn by the secondary and help the Pats secure victory. The only hesitation would be whether or not Matt Cassel can accurately air it out.

Chargers at Buccaneers
One of the most productive wide receivers aside from Andre Johnson has been Antonio Bryant. Bryant has 60 fantasy points his last three weeks and is definitely worth the start this week. The Chargers don't have nearly the same pass defense that they had last year and whether or not Jeff Garcia plays or not should not have a factor on Bryant's performance.

Jets at Seahawks
Here is that whole East Coast West Coast thing again. The Jets are 0-3 this year on the West coast, all three horrible losses to the Chargers, Raiders, and 49ers. The Jets have allowed almost 30 points a game in those three contests so who do you pick on Seattle this week? To be honest I don't know, so I'll take the kicker Olindo Mare. 30 points allowed means the kicker will have at least 10 points, unless Seattle scores 4 touchdowns and gets a safety.

Texans at Raiders
I am a big fan of Matt Schuab this week. Although Oakland is second to last against the run this year, Slaton has been a work horse lately and although his numbers show otherwise I feel that he might be slowing up. Meanwhile Schuab has two best friends with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. I predicted a few weeks ago that the Texans would beat the Titans and now I'll go ahead and say that Schuab has a better fantasy day than Slaton.

Bills at Broncos
Do you remember Lee Evans? Well most of you have forgotten about him since his last touchdown in week 7. I don't know if Evans has been a disappointment this season but he still has time to make up for it. The Broncos don't do so well against the offense this year, period. Evans is bound to get lucky, no matter who is throwing at him. He can easily double his production of the past two weeks, 45 yards.

Eagles at Redskins
The past three weeks have been some of the best weeks for the Eagles. No more drama and an equal balance of running and passing. The only question for you is, which player will have more points, McNabb or Westbrook? I'll say this week it is Donovan McNabb, especially with the focus on Westbrook lately. At the beginning of the year, these two teams met and McNabb was rendered useless, but a lot has changed since then. McNabb has been the best QB lately and he will continue to flourish this week.

Falcons at Vikings
If you have been reading my weekly columns you would know that I talk a lot about Matt Ryan and usually don't play him on the road. Exception here though against the run-stuffing Vikings defense. We will see what this rookie quarterback has to offer in this big game. Which is a better story, the Falcons or Dolphins? We'll see which team goes further, but for now count on Matt Ryan.

Panthers at Giants
Can the Giants lose three in a row? For the Giants sake, hopefully not. They will have to trust their running game, regardless if it is Jacobs or Derrick Ward. Carolina doesn't have a great run defense so even if Jacobs is healthy enough to split time with Ward there should be plenty of opportunities for the both of them. It is a risk that could end up winning you your league Championship.

Extra Points: Week 16 Fantasy Studs

Saturday.. Saturday... Saturday Night's alright for... the NFL. Don't forget to set your roster. Most of you are in your championship game week so every play is important. This week you aren't playing any push over, its the second best team in the league, aside from yourself. Let's get the ball rolling with tonight's game.

Ravens at Cowboys
You'd expect a defensive battle tonight with the Ravens allowing the second fewest points in the league, allowing a hair over 15 points per game, but I don't see that happening on a short week in Dallas, the last home game at this stadium. (I've been by the new stadium and it is an amazing edifice) Both teams need the win, but I think that Dallas needs it more. When Dallas wins the drama remains low. Expect the Ravens to bring the pressure with Marion Barber still out and thus Tony Romo will look to his next best target, Jason Witten. Witten has 20 receptions his last 3 games compared to just 4 receptions his prior 4 games. The feud is over between Witten and Owens. Sure Owens will get his looks, but can you really trust him to hall them in, especially with Ed Reed looming? Linebacker blitzes provide great opportunities for a TE to cut over the middle.

Friday, December 19, 2008

First to Third: Where is Scott Boras?

The Yankees unwrapped their presents this morning as the team introduced its newest acquisitions, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Francisco Rodriguez signed his deal with the Mets, so three of the big names on the free agent market have already found new homes. Despite these big names making headlines and earning over $280 million between just the three of them, there is one superstar that traditionally makes news around this time of year that has been curiously quiet in '08. Has anyone seen Scott Boras?

Baseball's mega-agent and the maestro behind Alex Rodriguez opting out of his contract during the World Series in '07 is still waiting for his two biggest clients this off-season, Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez, to sign contracts. Manny has even flirted with the idea of retirement, unless a good offer comes soon. While everyone's favorite lackadaisical leftfielder is unlikely to hang 'em up, Manny's hot stove hasn't reached room temperature yet. Teixeira is bound to sign somewhere - and soon - but the fireworks that typically surround Boras have been absent during the Teixeira negotiations. All of Teixeira's offers have come in the same ballpark financially, but isn't it Boras' job to drive that price up? It just hasn't happened.

We're talking about the same agent that has stirred the pot and stole the headlines by securing A-Rod, Barry Zito, and Daisuke Matsuzaka (among others) absurd contracts. This year, his clients are still unsigned. Keep looking under rocks, though, Boras is due to show up any day now. Like Santa Claus, Boras shows up once a year, every year.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Dollars and Sense: Don't Cry for Me, David Samson

If General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner (the man who arrived in Washington DC last month on private jet, only to cry poverty) needs a new golfing buddy, let me recommend Florida Marlins President David Samson.

Earlier this year, Miami-Dade County executives agreed to provide Samson's Marlins with $347 million in public funding toward building a new stadium. However, even after receiving this handout, Samson was still refusing to spend money in the free agent market. When questioned about the Marlins' lack of free agent signings, Samson was quoted by the Palm Beach Post as saying the following:
I very much feel like the producer of an independent film trying to compete with a big-budget studio blockbuster. ... That's hard. The only way to do it is to have a low-budget film that is actually good that people will watch. We are very much like Juno going up against The Dark Knight.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think Juno (or any other independent film) was given a $347 million government handout. Right?

The Puck Stops Here: Matty Boy


After a week hiatus due to law school finals, I am back. I hope you enjoyed Mike’s column last week, I am sure we will see more of Mike’s hockey commentary at other points throughout the season. I hope you followed his advice; his opinion is one of maybe three or four that I actually trust.

We have a lot to cover so I am going to get right to it.

First and foremost, Mats Sundin, has announced that he will be deciding on a suitor within a week or two. At this point, stop reading and pick him up. Ok, Sundin is only signing with a contender so the best talent he has played with in a few years should support his numbers. Sundin in his prime was about as dominant as players come. Today, he is a top 10 center. You will never find this kind of talent on the waiver wire again this season. Go get him.

A couple of Penguins are very close to returning to action. Marc-Andre Fleury should find his way back into the lineup Thursday night. He sat the bench on Saturday watching Sabourin get lit up. He is going to start and should be activated in all leagues. At this point, I would cut Sabourin. Ryan Whitney is also very close to returning to the lineup. He was originally rumored to be returning with Fleury on Thursday, but it is looking more like Tuesday against the Lightning. Whitney should also be started immediately because he will undoubtedly join the top power play unit. While the Pens may bring him back slowly, he will certainly get a lot of power play time.

Chris Osgood hurt his groin and it sounds like he should be out for an extended time. He sounded pretty dejected in a recent interview, almost whining and moping. The obvious add is Ty Conklin, who filled in gloriously for Fleury last season. However, keep an eye on Jimmy Howard. He has been the next big thing for Detroit goalies for a few years now. He outplayed Conklin in the preseason but was sent down because he had a two-way contract. He struggled earlier this year in the minors after breaking a finger, but has rebounded since. Again Conklin will be the first you want to add, but Jimmy Howard could take the job and run with it if given a chance.

As I thought they would, the Dallas Stars are separating themselves from Sean Avery. They are currently exploring their options while Avery gets his temper under control in anger management. It is not clear what will happen to Avery, what is clear is that Avery has played his last game in a Stars uniform. The Stars minor league affiliate has already said they would accept Avery, so that may be option #1 for a while. Until we get a timetable for a return to the NHL, don’t waste a roster spot on Avery.

Here are a couple quick hits for you to look into.

It looks as though the coaching change and Justin Williams’ return to the line up in Carolina are having positive affects on fantasy worthy players. Ray Whitney, Eric Staal, and Tuomo Ruutu have stepped up their play recently and are starting to live up to their pre-season expectations. Staal and Whitney are probably owned but Ruutu should be out there for you.

Somehow I have failed to mention David Krejci and I apologize. He is on fire. Most of his production has come in the form of assists but points are points. If for some odd reason he is available, I implore you to get him. He had 10 points in his last 6 games. Sure, he won’t keep that up but I think he will continue at about a point-per-game.

As with any SportsJudge.com article, feel free to post a comment or question. Until next week, The Puck Stops Here.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Dollars and Sense: Not Everybody is Happy by Labor Peace in Professional Sports

Most sports fans are pleased by the absence of strikes and lockouts in 2008. However, along with this newfound labor peace comes a price. According to the blog Above the Law, the law firm Proskauer Rose, which has long served as outside counsel to the NFL, NBA and NHL, recently laid off 35 attorneys. Apparently, there is just not enough work (sports and otherwise) to go around.

For those of you unfamiliar Proskauer Rose, this is the firm where NBA Commissioner David Stern and NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman both started there careers. I regularly refer to Proskauer as one of the "big four" law firms in the world of sports representation.

In Between the Tackles: Honestly, Who Throws a Shoe?

The biggest news from Sunday wasn't Andre Johnson torching Cortland Finnegan and the Titans for 207 yards. It wasn't Steve Smith reeling in 165 yards, or Tavaris Jackson coming off the bench to toss four touchdowns. To me, it was the moment I was lounging on my couch on Sunday and I caught my first glimpse of one of the best arms I have seen in years. His name: Muntadar al-Zaidi.

I hate to recommend players only based on one play but once you see the video you'll agree this guy is at least worth a flier. Okay, I know it's no replacement for the buttery-smooth throwing motion of Tom Brady...in fact it might be as ugly as Tony Romo's three-quarter delivery when he came into the league a few years ago; but take a look at the situation in the picture above. Pocket collapsing around him. Two hands grabbing his jersey. Grey suit with a hand in his face. All of this while trying to hit Bush in the numbers who just happens to be facing tight coverage by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. I won't pretend to understand the politics behind this, but if this doesn't win an ESPY I'll be shocked.

Official Review

Before we get into fantasy football news, let's take a look at the Steelers-Ravens touchdown call that we featured on Sunday night. Check out the video if you haven't had a chance. After days of back and forth, the NFL finally decided on Tuesday to stand behind referee Walt Coleman's decision to rule Santonio Holmes' catch a touchdown. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, a league spokesmen said "Walt Coleman determined via high-def video review that the receiver had possession and two feet down with the ball in the goal line, meaning it broke the plane." What seems odd to me is the continued emphasis on both feet being down in the end zone. As far as I could gather from research (which was confirmed in the Post-Gazette article), having possession of the ball while breaking the plane of the end zone seems to be the necessary action. His feet did not need to be on the ground at this point, but at some point had to in order to finish or "complete the play." Without the referenced 'high-def video' at our disposal, we can only work with CBS' high-def view from the side near the goal line. At that angle (which I have heard announcers mention is not 100% on the goal line), it's hard to see how there was indisputable evidence to overturn the call on the field. I also wonder, if there are additional replays available to the NFL, why not release them to the public along with yesterday's backing of Coleman's call? I know the NFL can't go around justifying every call referee's make with video evidence but in situations like this it would help put Ravens fans at ease. Maybe this is the cynic in me created by the Spygate fiasco (and destruction of evidence), but I wonder if this alternate replay angle even exists. Enough speculation, let's move on to fantasy football.

Quick Hits

~ With only two weeks left in the regular season, expect a number of players to be placed on Injured Reserve in the coming days to free up roster spots to sign replacements or give bench players a chance to prove their worth. This can be one of the most challenging times of the year as a fantasy owner. With teams beginning to rest players for the playoffs, you need to stay on top of the news if you want to win your league.
~ Don't be surprised if the Saints shut down Reggie Bush for the remainder of the season. After falling out of the playoff picture, there's no reason for New Orleans to risk the long-term health of their premiere player, especially with Pierre Thomas' performance in the starter's role. It would make much more sense for New Orleans to see what they have with Thomas and whether they can rely on him as a long-term complement to Bush.
~ For all the drama that surrounded this season's substance-abuse suspensions (or lack-thereof), Minnesota Pro Bowl defensive lineman Pat Williams will now miss at least the rest of the regular season anyway. Williams broke his right scapula on Sunday against the Cardinals and now with DE Jared Allen playing with a sprained MCL, this leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Minnesota run defense. Upgrade Michael Turner's matchup dramatically, especially after he put up over 180 yards on the suddenly soft Buccaneers last weekend.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

First to Third: Mets Need Starters


Nice work by the Mets to solidify a bullpen that cost the Amazin's a trip to the postseason in 2008, but if I were Omar Minaya, I would take a look at my starting pitching and panic.

Behind Johan Santana, arguably the best pitcher in the game, the Mets have little depth in their rotation. Mike Pelfrey has only pitched 200 innings once in his career (200.2 IP in 2008) and is far from a bonafide number two pitcher. John Maine hasn't cracked the 200 innings plateau and fell off a bit from his 2007 campaign (15 wins to 10). The Mets could bring Pedro Martinez back, although it's uncertain what he has left in the tank.

With the signings of a couple of the marquee starters on the market, I would take a gamble on a couple of other smaller name starters to give the Mets another veteran or two in the rotation. Randy Wolf and Brad Penny are a couple of National League guys who could fill that veteran void at a reasonable price. Despite his history of injuries it would certainly be worth it to take a one or two year gamble on Ben Sheets, who becomes a number 1A starter if healthy. Without an upgrade in the rotation, expect the Mets to be on the sideline in October 2009.

O'Malley's Tallies: Week 15 -- Pierre to the Rescue!



STUDS

1. Pierre Thomas – If you told me in the beginning of the year that the reason I would be in the championship of my league would be because of Pierre Thomas, I would have definitely had you committed. In reality, however, this was indeed the case for myself and many others this week. All in all, Thomas accounted for 146 yard and 2 touchdowns in the Saints loss and has begun to look more and more like the Saints feature back of 2009 and forward….

2. Michael Turner – Just when you think Michael Turner’s first season as a starter can’t get much better, he goes out and TORCHES one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. Going against the Bucs Sunday in the Georgia Dome, Turner went off for 182 yards and 1 touchdown to help keep his Dirty Birds directly in the mix for one of the NFC’s Wild Card births…

3. Andre Johnson – As I stated a few weeks back, there is not a receiver in the game today that is more dominant when healthy than #80 on the Houston Texans. Despite being eliminated from playoff contention, the Texans continue to thrive in the spoiler role with the Tennessee Titans being their latest victim on Sunday. After hauling in 11 catches for over 200 yards and a touchdown, one would have to think A.J. will the #1 rated fantasy receiver going into next season…

4. Tavaris Jackson – He may not have thrown 40 times or gained 300 yards through the air, but after Tavaris Jackson threw 4 touchdown passes Sunday afternoon Viking fans all over the country took a deep sigh of relief! With Gus Frerotte out with an injury, Jackson regained his former role as starting quarterback and kept his team in the driver’s seat for the division crown with a big win in the Arizona desert. With the Frerotte injury still up in the air and the possible pending suspension of the “Williams Wall”, the Vikes will need more big performances like this to lock up that postseason birth in the NFC North..

5. Philip Rivers – In a year in which the Chargers lose their best defensive player to knee surgery (Shawne Merriman) and LaDanian Tomlinson begins to show signs of aging, Philip Rivers continues to be a major breath of fresh air. Going up against hated division rival Kansas City in Arrowhead on Sunday, Rivers found a way to lead his troops to an impressive come from behind victory with some impressive numbers. When it was all said and done, Rivers accounted for 346 yards and 2 touchdowns to help keep the Bolts on life support for a postseason birth…


DUDS

1. Eli Manning – Just when you think the New York Giants are invincible, #10 on the Giants decides to display the dreaded “Eli Face” multiple times on Sunday Night Football. In a game with Home Field implications and the opportunity for New York to knock Dallas out of the playoff picture, Eli and Giants truly laid an egg. Whether it was injuries to key personnel or just an all out performance from the Dallas defense, anyone that started Eli Manning this week is more than likely batting for the 3rd place game this week.

2. J.P. Losman - What a disgrace. Run the clock out J.P!!!!!!

3. Kerry Collins – I am not sure if it was good scheming by the Texans or old age by Kerry Collins, but the Titans looked lost on Sunday. With home field advantage still up in the air, the Titans were more than vulnerable vs. the below average Houston defense. On the day, Collins finished with only 180 yards, 1 interception, and a QB rating of 50 leading the Titans to a loss and making the race at the top of the AFC VERY tight…

4. Joe Flacco – Going into this week vs. Pittsburgh, it was evident Joe Flacco did not call Trent Dilfer for Baltimore Raven game management skills! In a game in which Ed Reed and company dominated on defense, a turnover free game from the quarterback would have for sure sealed the deal for Baltimore. However, after throwing for only 115 yards and 2 interceptions, Pittsburgh was able to hang around and eventually win the game the AFC North crown from the Ravens…


GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP THIS COMING WEEK!!!

Monday, December 15, 2008

Extra Points: Week 15 Studs MNF


You need that one last guy to put you into the Championship Game in your fantasy league, so look no further and make sure you have L.J Smith playing tonight. Sure the Eagles will rely on the legs of Brian Westbrook but don't you think that if I know this fact that the Browns know this fact? So with that said, the play-action will be in full force tonight. L.J Smith will be a great target in the redzone and is likely to get at least one score. This could be good news for those of you playing against Westbrook tonight. I don't see a 30 point game in his future, maybe 15.

Will Stevens, Author of America's Most Famous Sports Law Review Article, Passes Away at 60

Last April Fools Day, I profiled the most famous sports-law review article of all-time, "The Uncommon Origins of the Infield Fly Rule." This piece, which was presumably written tongue-in-cheek, examines “whether the same types of forces that shaped the development of the common law also generated the Infield Fly Rule.”

Over the years, The Uncommon Law Origins of the Infield Fly Rule developed a cult following. The work has been cited 56 times, including by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. Wikipedia ranks the Aside as one of the sixteen most “significant” works ever published by Penn Law Review.

On Thursday, piece's author, Will Stevens, passed away. The New York Times wrote a beautiful obituary, which I have attached a link here.

My deepest sympathies go out to the Stevens Family.

(The author wishes to thank Sam Porter for alerting him of this sad news.)





Sunday, December 14, 2008

Official Review: Did They Steel a Win?

Sunday's AFC North defensive battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens ended with an interesting and questionable call by the referees.  On third down, trailing 9-6 with 50 seconds remaining, Ben Roethlisberger scrambled and found Santonio Holmes with his feet in the end zone.  This is where things get interesting.  Originally, referees spotted the ball a few inches from the end zone...but upon further replay review, reversed the call and ruled it a touchdown. The Steelers took the lead, won the game, clinched a first round playoff bye, and continued a season of odd game endings.

Referee Walt Coleman's explanation for overturning the call: "After reviewing the play, the receiver had two feet down in the end zone with possession of the ball, we have a touchdown."

Here's a quick rundown of the rules.  Check out the video below and make your call in the comments section.  Then stop back for "In Between the Tackles" on Wednesday when SportsJudge will make their call.

From various media outlets:
~A touchdown occurs when any part of the ball, legally in possession of a player in bounds, breaks the plane of the opponent's goal line, provided it is not a touchback.

~A receiver is deemed to be in possession of a catch when both feet touch down in bounds while the receiver demonstrates control of the football.  Should a receiver make a legal catch of the ball with both feet in bounds in the end zone, a touchdown shall be awarded even if no part of the ball was deemed to break the plane of the goal line while in possession of the receiving player.

You make the call....


Friday, December 12, 2008

Warning to all CBS Sports Football Owners: Do you have a Playoff Game Tie-Breaker?

At SportsJudge, we generally receive two types of disputes -- the good ones, and those that should have been prevented.

Amongst the second category, our court last week needed to resolve two disputes in leagues hosted by CBS Sports Commissioner, in which playoff games ended in ties and the league had no predetermined tie-breaker. Apparently, the CBS Sports Commissioner product does not require league owners to choose their game tie-breakers in advance, and many league owners simply did not.

If you use the CBS Sports Commissioner product, I strongly encourage you to look to make sure that you have a playoff game tie-breaker in place. Note, that this is different from a standings tie-breaker, which determines what teams would advance into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, if you are playing in either a CBS Sports Free or CBS Sports Premium (Money) league, you have absolutely nothing to worry about. In those games, the CBS Sports rules very clearly state that the first tie-breaker is "combined rushing, passing and receiving yards."

Extra Points: Week 15 Studs

Buccaneers at Falcons
Who wants it more? Can the Bucs lose two in a row this late in the year? Yes, and Matt Ryan will be the reason why. The Falcons are at home and I love them in the Dome. Last week the Bucs held the Panthers to just 173 yards passing but they were more focused on running the ball. Matt Ryan made is second start versus the Bucs and had two interceptions, since that game he has had just five interceptions and is riding a nine game double-digit scoring streak.

Redskins at Bengals
Lets patch things up in Washington between coach Jim Zorn and running back Clinton Portis. I know how we can do this. We give the ball to Portis every other play. If it isn't obvious that Portis will get 25 carries this week and he is up against the Bengals, I don't know why you wouldn't play him. He could easily see the end zone multiple times.

Seahawks at Rams
I could put up 15 fantasy points versus the Rams this year. If you can get Maurice Morris, go ahead and get him and play him. He will improve on his 39 yards rushing last week with close to 100 and a score.

49ers at Dolphins
I told you a few weeks ago about Shaun Hill and he has been performing pretty well as of late, so how about another quarterback in this game, Chad Pennington. Chad has gotten the Dolphins this far and the word 'playoffs' still swirls around this team. It is amazing and it helps to have a veteran quarterback. Chad will do what he can to get this team a win, even if it includes catching a touchdown in this wildcat offense.

Bills at Jets
Brett Favre has come out and said that he thinks the Jets will make the playoffs. Not much of a guarantee but enough to get people's attention. Well Mr. Favre, here is your chance to back up your wavering prediction. The Bills have fallen down since their hot start and Brett Favre is coming off a tough game last week versus the 49ers. Look for a big bounce back game for Favre and a run away victory for the Jets.

Lions at Colts
Can I pick Peyton Manning two weeks in a row?" Well I won't but go ahead and play Reggie Wayne. Manning had a big week last week and is catching fire with another mediocre opponent. Yes, I said mediocre, not horrible. Reggie Wayne is Peyton's favorite target and I couldn't even name one cornerback for the Lions without looking it up.

Chargers at Chiefs
The Chargers have a soft pass defense and Mark Bradley could be out on Sunday. Look to the other side of the passing game, Dwyane Bowe. Bowe has six or more receptions in half of the Chiefs games this year. The numbers just make sense for Bowe this week. Not many people know of him, so you might be able to pick him up.

Packers at Jaguars
I am going with a sleeper pick in this game that I made earlier this year. Marcedes Lewis, tight end for the Jaguars will have a great game this week. He hasn't had a touchdown since I last mentioned him in week 6 and that was his only double-digit fantasy game, until this week. Matt Jones is out, Jerry Porter is out, Fred Taylor is out. 2+2+2 = 6, as in week 6 sleeper pick and 6 points for a touchdown reception.

Titans at Texans
Last week I went with LenDale White so this week I'll go with Chris Johnson. My only real reason is that no one can stop him lately. Whether it is running or catching, Johnson is a threat out of the backfield. Back to Back 100+ yard rushing games after amassing just over 118 yards rushing his prior three games. I expect another 100 yards and a score easily.

Vikings at Cardinals
Did Adrian Peterson let you down last week. I had a feeling he wouldn't live up to the hype of playing against the Lions. Well this week should be different for him. I would like to go with Visante Shiancoe though, for comedic reasons this week, but I am pretty sure that Peterson will have a better week.

Broncos at Panthers

The Broncos are looking for a running back this week. If interested send your resume to Denver if interested. They aren't looking for a quarterback though, and that is because Jay Cutler has been a fantasy stud this year. If you had any doubts about Denver going up against the Panthers Defense, don't worry about it. Cutler will have another 20 point game this week because of the absence of a running game.

Steelers at Ravens

Looking at this game it appears as if no one jumps out at you, but look again and you might notice Hines Ward standing in the endzone waving to the Ravens fans after scoring a touchdown. The Steelers are better and their offense won't be as miserable as they were last week. Ward hasn't had a stand out game yet this year so this might as well be as good of a time as any. History is against him but don't let that deter you.

Patriots at Raiders
It is a tough week for the Patriots with the loss of Matt Cassel's father. Regardless I was going back with the Raiders D/ST. They have a solid pass defense and the Patriots have been stagnant at times, including last week. This could get ugly folks, a lot like the Jets/Raiders game earlier this year.

Giants at Cowboys
If you are seriously going to doubt the Cowboys at this point in the season then guess again. Last week's loss, albeit embarrassing, was also a wake up call. Tony Romo will air it out. The Giants can be beaten. Terrell Owens has been scoring lately and Jason Witten is back and healthy. Suddenly the Giants don't look like Super Bowl favorites after Romo picks them a part.

Browns at Eagles

On Monday Night the Browns shine. I'm going with Braylon Edwards in this match up. I don't care who is quarterbacking this Browns team. I don't see Brian Westbrook getting 30 points this week. The Browns are trying to save face on a disappointing season and Edwards will stand up to the challenge and make the catches.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Dollars and Sense: The $36,500 Pyramid

I did some math today.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if CC Sabathia plays out his entire seven-year contract with the Yankees, and he remains in good health throughout (unlikely for a pitcher--especially one of his size--to avoid the DL save for a 15 day trip here and there), throwing roughly 30 games a year at a very solid rate of about 7IP per game, for 210 innings for each of the seven years... at $161M he'll be earning approximately $36,500 per out. PER OUT!!!!

Better yet, he'll be earning over $100,000 per inning!!!!! And that doesn't even have to be a good inning!!! It can be a leadoff walk followed by a double, a single, a homer, a triple, a sac-fly, a single, a fielder's choice, a homer and a pop-out!!! Yes!!! With one out CC will earn the annual salary of thousands of teachers, plumbers, nurses, etc. And with one mediocre inning he can earn a 100K salary! He could buy the Illinois junior senator seat with less than a "quality start"!!! Wow!!!

Yes, I know, I know-- a player (or anyone) is worth as much as someone is willing to pay him. I've made the argument often. But I'm still blown away by the math here.

Enjoy it CC. The world is your ball-pit and you're the giant that pitches in it. I hope you really did want to play in New York. They won't forget the price tag.

Extra Points: Week 15 Studs


Here is a Thursday Night match up for you. If you have made it this far in the playoffs, congratulations. If you are in your consolation bracket, keep playing because some keeper leagues base next year's draft on who wins the consolation bracket.

Saints at Bears
Who has six touchdowns in his last six games with 30 catches and over 400 yards receiving? That would be Lance Moore. He didn't get a touchdown last week for the Saints, but I'd venture to guess that he gets one tonight. It's simple, actually. Drew Brees loves to throw the ball and Lance Moore will be there to get the touchdowns. I'll even go ahead and say that he TRIPLES his yardage from last week. For those who are counting that is 105 total yards.

Extra Attacker: Keep Your Fingers Safe

A few weeks ago I brought you my first "Extra Attacker" hockey feature which tried to bring some reason to the circus surrounding Barry Melrose and the Tampa Bay Lightning. As the hockey season progresses, I will begin to feature more NHL and fantasy hockey articles as a complement to Joe Romano's "The Puck Stops Here" fantasy advice every Thursday. This week, I'll do my best to fill Joe's shoes and see if we can find those under-the-radar NHL players that can take your fantasy team to the next level. First, a few personal thoughts.

As a lifetime hockey fan, I can't help but be disappointed by the fact that Joe Sakic's career is likely over following a freak accident with a snowblower on Wednesday that left him with multiple broken fingers and resulted in surgery to repair torn tendons.  Sakic was one of the most exciting players in the NHL to watch over the last decade and a half and was a classy guy off the ice too.  If you hung onto Sakic after his recent herniated disc injury, I know it's tough, but it's time to let him go.

As an update to the Tampa Bay article I referenced above, the revolving door continues as players are shuffled in and out almost daily.  This week featured big offseason signings Chris Gratton and Radim Vrbata being placed on waivers and the Lightning dressing their 35th different player of the season.  The Lightning are 1-7-2 since Tocchet took over and show no signs of righting the ship.  I think the Gratton and Vrbata moves are an indication of how this is going to play out.  The Lightning need to increase cash flow by $18 million this year.  If they have no hope of making the playoffs, their only option is to dump salary as quickly as possible.  Veterans like 42-year old Gary Roberts will be waiting in line to be shipped to a contender, and I really start to wonder if longtime-Lightning Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis will still be around next summer.  Let's get to the fantasy watch list...

Derek Roy - C - Buffalo: I've always been a fan of Roy, but he's a slow starter. After letting him get away from me in my draft this year, I made a mental note to try to deal for him in December before he caught fire. If he's not available in your league right now, you need to do the same. Take a look at his finish last year, take into account his recent stretch of 14 points in 13 games, and I don't see any reason you wouldn't want him on your team.

Justin Williams - RW - Carolina: Last season Williams only played 37 games as a result of a torn ACL.  Before he had a chance to make his return this season, he suffered a torn achilles tendon in training camp.  The initial timetable was a minimum of 3-4 months with no telling how the injury would affect the Hurricanes winger long-term. Amazingly, Williams quietly returned to the ice last Thursday, December 4 and it couldn't have come at a better time for a team that recently fired head coach Peter Laviolette and own the league's 2nd-worst powerplay.  When healthy, Williams is a 75-point, 80 penalty minute winger and players like that don't just fall out of the sky.  Pick him up, be patient for a week or two and while you're at it look to trade for the underachieving Eric Staal.  Staal's 16 points through 28 games are a far cry from the 100 points he posted only a few seasons ago.  He'll be thrilled to have Williams back.

Shawn Horcoff - C - Edmonton: The poor man's Ales Hemsky is a notoriously streaky player. Right now, he's on fire. With 12 points in his last 8 games (and a fight with David Backes for good measure); Horcoff, Hemsky, and Dustin Penner are clicking and it's resulting in wins for the Oilers.

Steve Reinprecht - C - Phoenix: When it comes to fantasy sports, I'm a firm believer in focusing on the teams like Phoenix that don't get much media attention. After Olli Jokinen was injured a few weeks ago, Coach Wayne Gretzky reunited his top line from last season of Reinprecht, Peter Mueller, and Shane Doan. Reinprecht has played very effectively and is worth adding to your radar, especially if Gretzky decides to move Jokinen down to the 2nd line when he returns in an attempt to find secondary scoring.

Phil Kessel - RW - Boston: I know, Kessel is most likely not still available in your league, but I'm featuring him here because I think you need to swing a trade for him.  He is in the midst of a 13 game point streak and I have a feeling he is only heating up.  The Bruins top line of Marc Savard, Kessel and Boston cult-hero Milan Lucic, is arguably the best in the NHL and after watching the last six Bruins games, this line will stay together.  Savard doesn't get the recognition that Joe Thornton does, but it can be argued he is the best playmaker in the game, while Lucic isn't afraid to throw his body around in the corners.  This leaves the sniper Kessel to park in front of the net and rack up goals.  I know it'll be expensive to bring Kessel to your team at this point, but I still think he is undervalued in this situation. 

Jay Bouwmeester - D - Florida: Bouwmeester is one of the fastest defensemen in the NHL, but failed to register a goal in the first 20 games of the season.  In some leagues, frustrated owners may have decided to move on without Jay.  Since Bouwmeester found that elusive first goal, he has unloaded for 8 points in his last 7 games including 3 powerplay goals.  Not only do I like these stats, but I think there is even greater upside with his situation.  He is set to become a free-agent this summer and is likely fed up with the lack of success Florida has had. I doubt he'll resign. In an attempt to recover some sort of value for Bouwmeester before he hits the open market, look for the Panthers to deal him to a playoff contender in need of a puck-moving defenseman.  My personal hunch is Ottawa, but the Senators will hold off until Mats Sundin decides on his return to the NHL before making any drastic moves.  If he ends up quarterbacking the Ottawa powerplay the second half of the season, I can't even begin to dream about the points he'll put up.

Kyle Quincey - D - Los Angeles: Quincey and 19-year old phenom Drew Doughty have been relied upon to lead a defensive corps that has lost Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky in recent seasons.  Both have stepped up to the challenge.  Quincey has registered 16 points through 24 games and Doughty is averaging almost 24 minutes a game (including 27 last Friday).  This is another case of great talent flying under the radar on a lesser-known team, and both defensemen should produce for the Kings and fantasy owners alike for years to come.

Steve Mason - G - Columbus: Columbus is the only NHL franchise never to appear in the playoffs and in the super-competitive Western Conference they have realized they can't afford to be patient on the 20-year-old Mason.  Last season Blue Jackets goalie Pascal Leclaire
 burst onto the scene with 9 shutouts, but an ankle injury in late October allowed Mason to take the starting job and run with it.  Columbus realizes that Mason may be the future of the franchise in goal and will have trouble not starting him as long as he keeps winning games.  The Jackets aren't one of the top teams in the West and will likely miss the playoffs again, but for leagues that count saves or save percentage as a category, Mason will be a great addition to your roster.

Next Thursday Joe will be back with "The Puck Stops Here." If you have any questions on this article or would like to see any specific NHL topic covered by SportsJudge don't hesitate to comment.